Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Gariano C. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN, Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Ecuador	ESPN
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 310
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Boston River		Millonarios

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.6	1.75	Watch
	4.7	3.45	1.72	Watch
	4.79	3.59	1.78
	3.89	3.36	2.01	Watch
	4.5	3.3	1.75
	4.78	3.54	1.72	Watch
	2.96	3	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.34 ↑ (3)	3.41 ↑ (3)	1.89 ↓ (2.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Boston River
21.9%

Draw
27.9%

Millonarios
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boston River has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Boston River's form might have worsened.

Millonarios has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Millonarios's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boston River than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boston River, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (-14.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Millonarios, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Boston River - Millonarios Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Millonarios will win (votes: 14 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millonarios: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Millonarios (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Antunez B. (C) 17. Haller R. 3. Mancebo M. 25. Aguirre A. 13. Fernandez I. 5. Barrios F. 99. Reyna G. 11. Ramirez G. 6. Romero A. 20. Hornos M. 9. Gonzalez A.	12. Novoa D. (G) 30. Viveros S. 26. Llinas A. 17. Arias J. 2. Sarabia C. 19. Garcia M. 14. Silva D. (C) 18. Urena R. 22. Valencia S. 23. Castro L. 27. Contreras R.
Substitutes
31. Acosta J. 10. Amado A. 8. Bonfiglio F. 14. Dafonte F. 12. Gonzalez J. (G) 32. Gonzalez Y. 19. Granja A. 29. Lima A. 28. Martinicorena F. 26. Munoa F. 23. Rivero M. 2. Sotto K.	24. Angulo J. 20. Banguero D. 33. Castro A. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 1. De Amores G. (G) 4. Elizalde E. 99. Hurtado J. 29. Moreno Paz A. F. 35. Mosquera S. 3. Samuel M. 28. Vega S.
Coaches
Ithurralde I.	Bustos F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Hornos M. ⚽, Reyna G. (A),
45+1', Gonzalez A. 🟨,
45+3', Aguirre A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Gonzalez A. ↓, Bonfiglio F. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Contreras R. (Penalty Awarded),
56', Hornos M. ↓, Munoa F. ↑,
56', Ramirez G. ↓, Amado A. ↑,
63', Barrios F. ↓, Dafonte F. ↑,
63', Romero A. ↓, Gonzalez Y. ↑,
69', Garcia M. ↓, Castro Espinosa B. D. ↑,
75', 2 - 1, Gonzalez Y. ⚽, Bonfiglio F. (A),
76', Viveros S. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
76', Silva D. ↓, Vega S. ↑,
77', Mancebo M. 🟨,
81', 2 - 2, Castro L. (Penalty Awarded),
85', 2 - 3, Contreras R. ⚽,
87', Amado A. 🟨,
88', Contreras R. ↓, Banguero D. ↑,
90+6', 2 - 4, Castro L. ⚽, Angulo J. (A),

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Millonarios is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Boston River won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Millonarios - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 37.13%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boston River
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Boston River - Central Español	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	OHiggins - Boston River	2:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Boston River	4:1 ✺
20.04.26	Boston River - Cerro Largo	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	Millonarios - Boston River	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLLWL
- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
03.05.26	Alianza Valledupar - Millonarios	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Millonarios - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
23.04.26	Millonarios - Deportes Tolima	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	América de Cali - Millonarios	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	Millonarios - Boston River	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
15.04.26	Millonarios - Boston River	1:0

Upcoming Matches