The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Deportivo Merlo 24.6%
Draw 33.4%
Sportivo Italiano 42.1%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.9%
31.8%
30.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40.6%
34.1%
28.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportivo Merlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Merlo's form might have worsened.
Sportivo Italiano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sportivo Italiano's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (+16%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Merlo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Italiano than the current prediction. (-13.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sportivo Italiano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Deportivo Merlo - Sportivo Italiano Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Figueroa T. (G) 4. Barrientos L. 5. Benitez F. 2. Figueredo L. 10. Gugenheim C. 7. Hernandez R. 11. Maguicha D. 6. Minnicelli A. 8. Quinteros E. 9. Sandoval I. 3. Velasco A.
1. Yordan G. (G) 4. Bifiguer C. 3. Fantino L. 10. Gimenez K. 8. Guzman L. 9. Guzman M. 7. Laborda L. 6. Merzario E. 11. Molina F. 2. Ordonez C. 5. Rivero J.
Substitutes
16. Alfieri L. 17. Busto J. 18. Cabrera D. 20. Da Rosa J. E. 19. Paez A. M. 15. Pereyra D. 12. Ratti V. (G) 13. Sineiro C. 14. Soos J.
12. Alastra A. (G) 20. Caceres P. 15. Daivez A. 13. Di Massimo F. 14. Durante P. 17. Fortino R. 19. Gomez F. 16. Guerra A. 18. Hirigoyen T.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 3)
7', 0 - 1, Guzman M. ⚽,
15', 0 - 2, Guzman M. ⚽,
20', 0 - 3, Molina F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Molina F. ↓, Gomez F. ↑,
60', Gimenez K. ↓, Hirigoyen T. ↑,
65', Velasco A. ↓, Alfieri L. ↑,
65', Hernandez R. ↓, Paez A. M. ↑,
65', Gugenheim C. ↓, Da Rosa J. E. ↑,
69', Quinteros E. ↓, Cabrera D. ↑,
73', Merzario E. 🟨,
75', Guzman L. ↓, Fortino R. ↑,
75', Laborda L. ↓, Guerra A. ↑,
79', 0 - 4, Guzman M. ⚽,
83', Guzman M. ↓, Caceres P. ↑,
Preview
Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 0.
Recent performances by Deportivo Merlo have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Sportivo Italiano is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 1 match, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 0.6:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Merlo won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.9:1.1).
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Figueroa T. (G) 
Alfieri L. 
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