Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Departamental Libertad (Pasto)

Referee: Ortega C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America
Usa	Fanatiz


	Deportivo Pasto		Junior Barranquilla

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.88	3.5	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3.25
	2.36	3	3.35	Watch
	2.35	2.88	3.43	Watch
	2.3	2.88	3.3
	2.37	2.92	3.38	Watch
	2.36	3	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.46)	2.91 ↓ (3.01)	3.37 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Network on TV: Nuestra Tele

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Pasto
40%

Draw
32.2%

Junior Barranquilla
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

31%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

31.8%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pasto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Junior Barranquilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Junior Barranquilla than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Deportivo Pasto - Junior Barranquilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas V. (G) 24. Alarcon A. 4. Caicedo L. 22. Alba I. (C) 23. Rios J. 20. Castano M. 19. Castillo D. 6. Caicedo J. 13. Castilla J. 9. Torres G. 17. Jaramillo F.	77. Mele S. (G) 34. Guerrero J. 66. Baez C. 5. Rivera D. 3. Herrera E. 29. Gutierrez T. (C) 6. Moreno D. 99. Enamorado J. 10. Gonzalez L. 8. Chara Y. 20. Caicedo D.
Substitutes
2. Carabali B. 8. Charrupi G. 33. Lopez Larrota K. E. (G) 27. Morinigo N. 70. Quinones D. 7. Rendon K. 10. Ritacco G.	80. Angel Bernal F. S. 70. Bacca C. 19. Cantillo C. 4. Cuenu J. 30. Martinez J. (G) 9. Paiva G. 23. Rodriguez S.
Coaches
Ayala C.	Farias Acosta C. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Alarcon A. ⚽,
21', Jaramillo F. 🟨,
22', 1 - 1, Gonzalez L. (Pen),
24', Caicedo D. 🟨,
27', 2 - 1, Caicedo J. ⚽, Castano M. (A),
38', Caicedo L. ↓, Carabali B. ↑,
42', 3 - 1, Alarcon A. ⚽, Castilla J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Gonzalez L. ↓, Angel Bernal F. S. ↑,
46', Chara Y. ↓, Cuenu J. ↑,
46', Gutierrez T. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
47', 3 - 2, Angel Bernal F. S. ⚽, Guerrero J. (A),
53', Carabali B. 🟨,
67', Castilla J. ↓, Quinones D. ↑,
69', Enamorado J. ↓, Paiva G. ↑,
72', 3 - 3, Paiva G. ⚽, Caicedo D. (A),
80', Caicedo D. ↓, Bacca C. ↑,
81', Castillo D. ↓, Morinigo N. ↑,
81', Torres G. ↓, Charrupi G. ↑,
83', Morinigo N. 🟨,
90+7', Caicedo J. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Deportivo Pasto won 3.

Deportivo Pasto is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Junior is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Deportivo Pasto could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Deportivo Pasto will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Deportivo Pasto won 7 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 16:19 (average 0.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Deportivo Pasto won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11:8 (average 1.1:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Junior Barranquilla - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 31.08%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
04.04.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportivo Pasto	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo Cali	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	Boyacá Chicó - Deportivo Pasto	0:0 ✺
14.03.25	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo La Equidad	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Deportivo Pasto - Llaneros SA	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TTTWW
- Junior Barranquilla
Colombian Primera A
06.04.25	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
31.03.25	Deportivo La Equidad - Junior Barranquilla	0:1 ✺
26.03.25	Junior Barranquilla - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
16.03.25	Llaneros SA - Junior Barranquilla	0:1 ✺
09.03.25	Junior Barranquilla - Millonarios	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
28.08.24	Deportivo Pasto - Junior Barranquilla	1:0
08.02.24	Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo Pasto	2:0
12.08.23	Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo Pasto	0:0
18.02.23	Deportivo Pasto - Junior Barranquilla	1:0
18.09.22	Deportivo Pasto - Junior Barranquilla	2:1
25.03.22	Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo Pasto	1:1
01.11.21	Junior Barranquilla - Deportivo Pasto	2:1

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