Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo (San Cristóbal)

Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)


	Deportivo Táchira		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.25	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2.15
	3.2	3.2	2.3
	3.4	3.26	2.31
	3.34	3.26	2.31
	3.2	3.2	2.1	Watch
	3.38	3.28	2.19	Watch
	3.25	3.2	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.31 ↓ (3.87)	3.24 ↓ (3.4)	2.23 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Táchira
28.5%

Draw
29.1%

Libertad Asuncion
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

27.5%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

26.6%

50.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Táchira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Libertad Asuncion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Táchira than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Táchira that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Libertad Asuncion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	18.2%	63.6%

Deportivo Táchira - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Deportivo Táchira will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Libertad will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Libertad: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Camargo J. (G) 4. Ruiz Diaz H. 2. Vivas C. 3. Gutierez J. 33. Hernandez N. 15. Cova M. (C) 28. Mendoza G. 24. Robles C. 23. Hernandez Y. 16. Hernandez J. 9. Uribe A.	12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 33. Piris I. 14. Cardozo L. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 17. Espinoza M. 35. Villalba R. 21. Sanabria L. 26. Caballero H. 8. Merlini B. 24. Santa C. R. (C)
Substitutes
1. Araque A. (G) 20. Calzadilla C. 13. Camacho P. 7. Castillo B. 19. Castillo J. 18. Chacon Y. 8. Figueroa J. 6. Paz Benitez O. 25. Rios A. 17. Saggiomo D. 10. Sosa C. 29. Vargas J.	9. Aguilar G. 6. Campuzano A. 36. Cardozo Lucena A. 7. Cardozo O. 18. Franco I. 25. Gonzalez A. (G) 27. Jacquet M. 19. Lezcano R. 22. Martinez H. 11. Mendieta W. 2. Ramirez I. 23. Vera E.
Coaches
Sarago E.	Galeano A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Robles C. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Hernandez J. ⚽, Hernandez N. (A),
35', Villalba R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Villalba R. ↓, Franco I. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Santa C. R. ⚽, Franco I. (A),
68', Hernandez J. ↓, Rios A. ↑,
68', Mendoza G. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
68', Merlini B. ↓, Martinez H. ↑,
75', Santa C. R. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
81', Espinoza M. (Pen),
82', Hernandez N. ↓, Vargas J. ↑,
82', Robles C. ↓, Calzadilla C. ↑,
83', Franco I. 🟨,
87', Gutierez J. ↓, Camacho P. ↑,
90+2', Caballero H. ↓, Campuzano A. ↑,
90+2', Sanabria L. ↓, Mendieta W. ↑,

Preview

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Libertad could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Deportivo Táchira have a series of guest games.

Libertad will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Deportivo Táchira won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Táchira
Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Nacional Montevideo - Deportivo Táchira	2:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
20.04.24	Deportivo La Guaira - Deportivo Táchira	1:0 ✺
14.04.24	Deportivo Táchira - Carabobo	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - Deportivo Táchira	3:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
05.04.24	Universidad Central - Deportivo Táchira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWLL
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:3 ✺
28.04.24	2 de Mayo - Libertad Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
24.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - River Plate Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	2:0 ✺
17.04.24	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.04.24	Libertad Asuncion - Deportivo Táchira	3:0

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