Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 9 January 2024, Tuesday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Brook C. (Eng)


	Derby County		Bradford City

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6
	1.47	4	5.25
	1.5	4.33	5.5	Watch
	1.51	4.41	5.95
	1.51	4.41	5.95
	1.4	4.2	5.8
	1.49	4.31	5.97
	1.48	4.3	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.71)	4.29 ↑ (3.71)	5.75 ↑ (4.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
62.4%

Draw
21.6%

Bradford City
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

24.6%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

23.6%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Derby County's performance.

Bradford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bradford City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Derby County that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bradford City than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bradford City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	7.1%	21.4%

Derby County - Bradford City Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Bradford will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J. 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. (C) 20. Elder C. 2. Wilson K. 16. Thompson L. 22. Fornah T. 17. Sibley L. 7. Barkhuizen T. 9. Collins J.	13. Doyle C. (G) 31. Tomkinson J. 4. Taylor A. 15. Stubbs S. 11. Gilliead A. 26. McDonald K. 6. Smallwood R. (C) 3. Ridehalgh L. 20. Chapman H. 19. Oliver V. 23. Pointon B.
Substitutes
8. Bird M. 39. Brown D. 6. Cashin E. 4. Hourihane C. 19. John-Jules T. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 1. Wildsmith J. (G)	9. Cook A. 27. Derbyshire M. 1. Lewis H. (G) 12. Oduor C. 8. Osadebe E. 5. Platt M. 14. Smith T.
Coaches
Warne P.	Alexander G.

Preview

Derby is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Bradford is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Derby to win the game is with odds 1.56.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Derby won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
06.01.24	Fleetwood Town - Derby County	1:3 ✺
01.01.24	Derby County - Peterborough United	2:3 ✺
29.12.23	Oxford United - Derby County	2:3 ✺
26.12.23	Wigan Athletic - Derby County	0:1 ✺
21.12.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWWW
- Bradford City
English League Two
06.01.24	Bradford City - Crawley Town	2:4 ✺
01.01.24	Crewe Alexandra - Bradford City	1:0 ✺
29.12.23	Bradford City - Stockport County	0:0 ✺
26.12.23	Bradford City - Morecambe	2:2 ✺
22.12.23	Doncaster Rovers - Bradford City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
09.07.22	Bradford City - Derby County	0:2

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