Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 27

Date: 6 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Highbury Stadium (Fleetwood)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Xtra
United-kingdom	Sky Sports


	Fleetwood Town		Derby County

	1	X	2
	6	4.2	1.53	Watch
	5.25	4.1	1.57
	5.5	4.33	1.55	Watch
	6.1	4.45	1.54
	6.1	4.45	1.54
	5.8	4	1.5
	5.6	4.2	1.56	Watch
	5.6	4.1	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.74 ↑ (4.97)	4.23 ↑ (3.81)	1.54 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fleetwood Town
16.4%

Draw
22.3%

Derby County
61.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

24.6%

56.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.3%

23.8%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fleetwood Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fleetwood Town than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.8%	4.8%	90.5%

Fleetwood Town - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Lynch J. (G) 26. Rooney S. 16. Heneghan B. 4. Wiredu B. 32. Earl J. 5. Lawal B. 14. Marriott J. 8. Vela J. (C) 22. Dolan C. 44. Patterson P. 9. Stockley J.	31. Vickers J. (G) 5. Bradley S. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 2. Wilson K. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 8. Bird M. 3. Forsyth C. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 9. Collins J. 19. John-Jules T.
Substitutes
51. Asamoah M. 33. Coughlan R. 18. Holgate H. 27. Macadam H. 30. McMullan S. (G) 20. Omochere P. 15. Quitirna J.	7. Barkhuizen T. 20. Elder C. 22. Fornah T. 17. Sibley L. 16. Thompson L. 23. Ward J. 1. Wildsmith J. (G)
Coaches
Adam C.	Warne P.

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Fleetwood is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Derby is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Derby could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Fleetwood won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Fleetwood won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fleetwood Town
English League One
01.01.24	Shrewsbury Town - Fleetwood Town	3:1 ✺
29.12.23	Fleetwood Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:2 ✺
26.12.23	Fleetwood Town - Carlisle United	1:1 ✺
23.12.23	Portsmouth - Fleetwood Town	1:1 ✺
16.12.23	Fleetwood Town - Peterborough United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLTTL
- Derby County
English League One
01.01.24	Derby County - Peterborough United	2:3 ✺
29.12.23	Oxford United - Derby County	2:3 ✺
26.12.23	Wigan Athletic - Derby County	0:1 ✺
21.12.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	3:1 ✺
16.12.23	Derby County - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
05.12.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	3:0
English League One
19.08.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	1:0
18.03.23	Derby County - Fleetwood Town	0:2
20.08.22	Fleetwood Town - Derby County	0:0

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