Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 26

Date: 1 January 2024, Monday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Joyce R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
United-kingdom	Sky Sports


	Derby County		Peterborough United

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.5	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.3
	2.05	3.6	3.4	Watch
	2.04	3.65	3.67
	2.05	3.65	3.67
	2	3.5	3.4
	2.02	3.64	3.46	Watch
	2.03	3.55	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.18)	3.57 ↑ (3.5)	3.49 ↑ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
46.4%

Draw
26.5%

Peterborough United
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

26.8%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

25.9%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Peterborough United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peterborough United than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	7.7%	0%

Derby County - Peterborough United Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 24. Nyambe R. 35. Nelson C. 6. Cashin E. 3. Forsyth C. 2. Wilson K. 8. Bird M. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 7. Barkhuizen T. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 9. Collins J.	25. Talley F. (G) 30. Kioso P. (C) 5. Knight J. 4. Edwards R. 3. Burrows H. 11. Poku K. 22. Kyprianou H. 14. Randall J. 27. Collins A. 10. Mason-Clark E. 17. Jones R.J.
Substitutes
5. Bradley S. 20. Elder C. 19. John-Jules T. 17. Sibley L. 16. Thompson L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J.	16. Ajiboye D. 6. Crichlow-Noble R. 8. De Havilland R. 7. Fuchs J. 2. Katongo J. 28. Wakeling J. 33. West J.
Coaches
Warne P.	Ferguson D.

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 3.

Derby in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Peterborough is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Derby will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Derby won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
29.12.23	Oxford United - Derby County	2:3 ✺
26.12.23	Wigan Athletic - Derby County	0:1 ✺
21.12.23	Derby County - Lincoln City	3:1 ✺
16.12.23	Derby County - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
09.12.23	Leyton Orient - Derby County	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWTW
- Peterborough United
English League One
29.12.23	Peterborough United - Barnsley	2:2 ✺
26.12.23	Peterborough United - Reading	2:2 ✺
23.12.23	Shrewsbury Town - Peterborough United	1:2 ✺
16.12.23	Fleetwood Town - Peterborough United	0:1 ✺
09.12.23	Peterborough United - Oxford United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.08.23	Peterborough United - Derby County	2:4
25.03.23	Peterborough United - Derby County	2:0
27.08.22	Derby County - Peterborough United	2:1
English League Championship
19.02.22	Derby County - Peterborough United	1:0
14.08.21	Peterborough United - Derby County	2:1
20.04.13	Derby County - Peterborough United	3:1
27.10.12	Peterborough United - Derby County	3:0

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