Match Info

Championship - Round 10

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Bell J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Oxford United		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.85	Watch
	2.46	3.05	3.14	Watch
	2.56	3.22	3.02
	1.41	3.95	9.76	Watch
	2.48	3	3.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.5)	3.28 ↑ (3.12)	4.36 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
45.2%

Draw
31.3%

Derby County
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

30.6%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

30.5%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oxford United's performance.

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derby County might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oxford United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32%	32%	36%

Oxford United - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 8 - 32%). Derby will win (votes: 9 - 36%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 32%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 17.2% – 54.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 15. Spencer B. 6. Helik M. 3. Brown C. 26. Currie J. 17. Mills S. 4. Vaulks W. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 23. Dembele S. 14. De Keersmaecker B. 16. Prelec N.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 22. Johnston M. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 3. Forsyth C. 32. Adams E. (C) 18. Ozoh D. 14. Weimann A. 10. Brewster R. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 9. Morris C.
Substitutes
29. Davies B. 19. Goodrham T. 9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 50. Krastev F. 27. Lankshear W. 22. Leigh G. 2. Long S. 7. Placheta P.	7. Agyemang P. 4. Batth D. 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 42. Clark B. 20. Elder C. 19. Jackson K. 6. Langas S. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G)
Coaches
Rowett G.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Mills S. ⚽, De Keersmaecker B. (A),
43', Currie J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
55', Vaulks W. 🟨,
59', Clarke M. 🟨,
61', Weimann A. ↓, Agyemang P. ↑,
71', Mills S. ↓, Placheta P. ↑,
71', Ozoh D. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
72', Brannagan C. 🟨,
84', Forsyth C. ↓, Elder C. ↑,
85', Brewster R. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
86', Brown C. 🟨,
89', Prelec N. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
89', Dembele S. ↓, Davies B. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 20).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Oxford: Phillips M. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Lacking Match Fitness) Blackett-Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Thompson L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Oxford: Johnson J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Derby: Langas S. (Knee Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Oxford won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Oxford won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.7:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Championship
04.10.25	Watford - Oxford United	2:1 ✺
01.10.25	Queens Park Rangers - Oxford United	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Oxford United - Sheffield United	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Bristol City - Oxford United	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Oxford United - Leicester City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LTLWT
- Derby County
English League Championship
04.10.25	Derby County - Southampton	1:1 ✺
30.09.25	Derby County - Charlton Athletic	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Wrexham - Derby County	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Derby County - Preston North End	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	West Bromwich Albion - Derby County	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
11.02.25	Derby County - Oxford United	0:0
22.10.24	Oxford United - Derby County	1:1
English League One
29.12.23	Oxford United - Derby County	2:3
15.08.23	Derby County - Oxford United	1:2
11.03.23	Oxford United - Derby County	2:3
30.07.22	Derby County - Oxford United	1:0

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