Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - QUALIFICATION - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 27 July 2023, Thursday

Location: Brandywell Stadium (Derry)

Referee: Valikonis R. (Ltu)


	Derry City		KuPS Kuopio

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.3	Watch
	2.15	2.95	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.55
	2.16	3	3.6
	2.16	3.03	3.64
	2.14	3.16	3.62	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (2.08)	3.11 ↓ (3.35)	3.53 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derry City
43.4%

Draw
30.1%

KuPS Kuopio
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

27.6%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

27.1%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

KuPS Kuopio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for KuPS Kuopio than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	44.4%	22.2%

Derry City - KuPS Kuopio Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Derry will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). KuPS will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maher B. (G) 2. Boyce R. 6. Connolly M. 17. McJannett C. 14. Doherty B. 10. McEleney P. (C) 23. Dummigan C. 8. Patching W. 20. Kavanagh B. 9. McGonigle J. 7. Duffy M.	1. Kreidl J. (G) 18. Saarinen S. 22. Toivomaki H. (C) 33. Hamalainen T. 38. Miettinen T. 26. Vidjeskog A. 13. Oksanen J. 10. Nissila U. 6. Savolainen S. 32. Yengi T. 9. Tuominen J.
Substitutes
3. Coll C. 15. Diallo S. 29. Kavanagh C. 45. Lemoignan J. (G) 16. McEleney S. 22. McEneff J. 12. McMullan P. 21. Mullen D. 28. O'Reilly A. 26. Ryan T. (G)	8. Dahlstrom S. 19. Gabriel Bispo 17. Heinonen A. 44. Jervis J. 11. Lampinen P. 16. Miettinen S. 37. Pitkanen M. (G) 12. Riihimaki H. (G)
Coaches
Higgins R.	Honkavaara J.

Preview

1st leg.

Derry is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

KuPS is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

KuPS could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Derry will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derry City
Irish FAI Cup
23.07.23	Derry City - Athlone Town	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
20.07.23	Derry City - HB Tórshavn	1:0 ✺
13.07.23	HB Tórshavn - Derry City	0:0 ✺
Irish Premier Division
07.07.23	Derry City - Sligo Rovers	2:1 ✺
30.06.23	Shelbourne - Derry City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWTWT
- KuPS Kuopio
Finnish Veikkausliiga
17.07.23	Inter Turku - KuPS Kuopio	1:1 ✺
08.07.23	KuPS Kuopio - VPS Vaasa	0:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
05.07.23	IFK Mariehamn - KuPS Kuopio	2:1 penalties ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
01.07.23	Lahti - KuPS Kuopio	3:4 ✺
27.06.23	KuPS Kuopio - IFK Mariehamn	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLLWL

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