Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 26

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday


	Desenzano Calvina		Crema

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.05	8.1
	1.38	4.07	8.18	Watch
	1.37	3.92	8.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 (1.37)	4.01 ↓ (4.08)	8.29 ↑ (7.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
66.4%

Draw
22.6%

Crema
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.2%

22.3%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.5%

21.2%

11%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desenzano Calvina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Crema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crema than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Desenzano Calvina - Crema Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Desenzano won 4.

Desenzano has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Crema has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Desenzano is the clear favorite.

We predict that Desenzano will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Desenzano won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Desenzano won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Crema	6	1	1	4	4:14	-10	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group D
22.02.26	SantAngelo - Desenzano Calvina	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Desenzano Calvina - Trevigliese	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Lentigione - Desenzano Calvina	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Desenzano Calvina - Progresso	3:1 ✺
25.01.26	Correggese - Desenzano Calvina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWTWW
- AC Crema
Italian Serie D - Group D
22.02.26	Crema - Sasso Marconi	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Tropical Coriano - Crema	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Trevigliese - Crema	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Crema - Pro Sesto	1:3 ✺
25.01.26	Progresso - Crema	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
26.10.25	Crema - Desenzano Calvina	0:2
Italian Serie D - Group B
14.04.25	Crema - Desenzano Calvina	0:1
01.12.24	Desenzano Calvina - Crema	2:0
17.01.24	Crema - Desenzano Calvina	0:2
20.09.23	Desenzano Calvina - Crema	2:3
13.03.22	Desenzano Calvina - Crema	0:1
31.10.21	Crema - Desenzano Calvina	1:1

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