Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 24

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday


	Desenzano Calvina		Trevigliese

	1	X	2
	1.35	4.46	7.83	Watch
	1.33	4.33	8.35
	1.36	4.33	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.47)	4.37 ↑ (4)	7.89 ↑ (6.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
67.6%

Draw
20.8%

Trevigliese
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

22.9%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.9%

21.6%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desenzano Calvina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Desenzano Calvina's performance.

Trevigliese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trevigliese than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Desenzano Calvina - Trevigliese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, ⚽,
44', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
81', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: ) and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group D (Play Out: )).

Desenzano has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Trevigliese has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Desenzano is the clear favorite.

We predict that Desenzano will win today's game, with odds of 1.35.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Desenzano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group D
08.02.26	Lentigione - Desenzano Calvina	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Desenzano Calvina - Progresso	3:1 ✺
25.01.26	Correggese - Desenzano Calvina	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Desenzano Calvina - Tuttocuoio	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Pro Palazzolo - Desenzano Calvina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TWWWW
- CS Trevigliese
Italian Serie D - Group D
08.02.26	Trevigliese - Crema	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Tropical Coriano - Trevigliese	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Trevigliese - Sasso Marconi	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Pro Sesto - Trevigliese	4:0 ✺
11.01.26	Progresso - Trevigliese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
12.10.25	Trevigliese - Desenzano Calvina	1:2

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