Match Info

Serie D - Winners stage - Round 3

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday


	Desenzano Calvina		Grosseto

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	3.2
	1.88	3.3	3.6
	1.84	3.29	3.59
	1.96	3.27	3.6	Watch
	1.95	3	3.5
	1.86	3.4	3.71
	1.81	3	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (1.99)	3.21 ↑ (3.2)	3.48 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
46.8%

Draw
27.7%

Grosseto
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.7%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.7%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desenzano Calvina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Grosseto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grosseto than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Desenzano Calvina - Grosseto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, Benedetti L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
86', 🟥,

Preview

Recent performances by Desenzano have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Grosseto is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Grosseto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Desenzano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group D
26.04.26	Desenzano Calvina - Pistoiese	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Imolese - Desenzano Calvina	4:3 ✺
12.04.26	Desenzano Calvina - Sasso Marconi	1:0 ✺
08.04.26	Tropical Coriano - Desenzano Calvina	0:1 ✺
02.04.26	Rovato Vertovese - Desenzano Calvina	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLWWT
- FC Grosseto
Italian Serie D - Group A
13.05.26	Grosseto - Ostia Mare	2:3 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group E
26.04.26	Grosseto - San Donato Tavarnelle	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Prato - Grosseto	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Grosseto - Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro	2:2 ✺
02.04.26	Siena - Grosseto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTT

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