Match Info

SPAIN: SEGUNDA RFEF - GROUP 5 - ROUND 13

Date: 4 December 2022, Sunday


	Diocesano		Estepona

	1	X	2
	3.5	2.95	2
	3.55	3.05	2.15
	3.4	3.1	2.01
	3.54	3.04	2.15
	3.5	3	2.05
	3.52	3.04	2.08
	3.45	3.15	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↓ (3.69)	3.05 ↓ (3.35)	2.07 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Diocesano
26.1%

Draw
29.9%

Estepona
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.2%

26.7%

49.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

26.2%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Diocesano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Estepona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estepona than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estepona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Diocesano - Estepona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Diocesano is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Estepona is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Diocesano could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Estepona is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Diocesano
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
27.11.22	Atlético Madrid B - Diocesano	1:0 ✺
20.11.22	Diocesano - Unión Adarve	1:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.11.22	Diocesano - Zaragoza	1:0 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
06.11.22	CD Guadalajara - Diocesano	2:0 ✺
30.10.22	Diocesano - Socuéllamos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LTWLL
- CD Estepona
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
30.11.22	Estepona - Atlético Paso	3:1 ✺
27.11.22	Estepona - Cacereño	0:0 ✺
20.11.22	Villanovense - Estepona	2:1 ✺
30.10.22	Melilla - Estepona	0:0 ✺
23.10.22	Estepona - Navalcarnero	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTLTW

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