Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Location: M-Scores Stadion (Dordrecht)

Referee: Teuben S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+


	Dordrecht		De Graafschap

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.6	2.25	Watch
	2.72	3.7	2.28
	2.77	4.01	2.33
	9.66	4.17	1.38	Watch
	2.67	3.82	2.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.11 ↑ (2.08)	3.86 ↓ (3.9)	2.11 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dordrecht
24.9%

Draw
26.6%

De Graafschap
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

23.6%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

22.7%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dordrecht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dordrecht's form might have worsened.

De Graafschap has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting De Graafschap's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dordrecht than the current prediction. (+17.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dordrecht, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for De Graafschap than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for De Graafschap, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	9.1%	54.5%

Dordrecht - De Graafschap Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Dordrecht will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). De Graafschap will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for De Graafschap: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Dordrecht (votes: 1 - 33.3%). De Graafschap (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Dordrecht (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Dordrecht (votes: 2 - 50%). De Graafschap (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
63. Biai C. (G) 5. Hilton J. 3. Valk S. 4. Drakpe A. 23. Woudenberg L. 21. Vetkal M. 8. Sunderland L. 7. Venema N. 18. van Asten R. 14. Pynadath J. 9. Carrillo S.	1. Wieggers T. (G) 4. Raterink O. 3. Besselink R. 18. Bultman S. 21. Symons K. 24. Meerstadt J. 10. Niemeijer R. 8. Gijselhart T. 7. Simons J. 2. Boersma B. 11. El Kadiri I.
Substitutes
11. Afaker M. 16. Bae S. 28. Codutti L. 13. Coremans T. (G) 46. Eduardo Y. 24. Huitzing G. 70. Malasomma M. 15. M'Bemba Y. 29. Rossi N. 10. van der Sluijs J. 77. Verdonk S. 25. Vugts S.	20. Braem T. 22. de Jong F. 32. Hartgers N. 25. Jonkers R. (G) 12. Kremers S. (G) 33. Rijks M. 5. Schoppema L. 9. Theodoridis D. 26. van der Heide A.
Coaches
Kuyt D.	Dijkhuizen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Boersma B. ⚽, Simons J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', van Asten R. ↓, van der Sluijs J. ↑,
59', Boersma B. ↓, Theodoridis D. ↑,
59', Meerstadt J. ↓, de Jong F. ↑,
60', Carrillo S. ↓, Eduardo Y. ↑,
60', Venema N. ↓, Rossi N. ↑,
60', Pynadath J. ↓, Afaker M. ↑,
69', Symons K. ↓, Schoppema L. ↑,
69', Simons J. ↓, van der Heide A. ↑,
71', Sunderland L. ↓, Bae S. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Valk S. ⚽, Vetkal M. (A),
82', van der Sluijs J. 🟨,
83', El Kadiri I. ↓, Rijks M. ↑,
84', de Jong F. 🟨,
85', Eduardo Y. 🟨,
90+1', Valk S. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Promotion: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dordrecht won 2.

In recent matches, Dordrecht has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

De Graafschap is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Dordrecht may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Dordrecht: de Bie J. (Injury) van Vianen D. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Dordrecht: Baltussen T. (Knee Injury) Van de Giessen L. (Ankle Injury) Woudenberg L. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dordrecht won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:38. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Dordrecht won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:19. (average 0.8:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Dordrecht - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.33%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Dordrecht
Dutch Eerste Divisie
19.09.25	Emmen - Dordrecht	2:0 ✺
15.09.25	Dordrecht - Jong AZ Alkmaar	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Den Bosch - Dordrecht	3:3 ✺
29.08.25	FC Oss - Dordrecht	0:3 ✺
23.08.25	Dordrecht - Jong PSV	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTTWL
- De Graafschap
Dutch Eerste Divisie
22.09.25	Jong AZ Alkmaar - De Graafschap	1:3 ✺
12.09.25	De Graafschap - Willem II	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	De Graafschap - Emmen	2:3 ✺
22.08.25	De Graafschap - MVV Maastricht	0:1 ✺
15.08.25	Roda - De Graafschap	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
17.05.25	Dordrecht - De Graafschap	2:0
13.05.25	De Graafschap - Dordrecht	0:0
Dutch Eerste Divisie
31.01.25	Dordrecht - De Graafschap	1:1
01.11.24	De Graafschap - Dordrecht	4:1
05.04.24	Dordrecht - De Graafschap	2:1
04.12.23	De Graafschap - Dordrecht	1:1
10.03.23	Dordrecht - De Graafschap	0:4

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