Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri (Pristina)

Referee: Cerny D. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Drita Gjilan		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	7.5	4.75	1.36
	7.9	4.95	1.35
	7.92	4.9	1.35
	8.15	4.96	1.37	Watch
	8	4.8	1.36
	8.45	5.24	1.39
	8	5	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.99 ↑ (5.71)	4.94 ↑ (4.3)	1.36 ↓ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Drita Gjilan
11.8%

Draw
19%

AZ Alkmaar
69.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.2%

21.6%

62.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.7%

17.8%

51.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Drita Gjilan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AZ Alkmaar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Drita Gjilan than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Drita Gjilan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-18.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15%	15%	70%

Drita Gjilan - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Drita will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). AZ will win (votes: 13 - 68.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 47.5% – 89.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.25 - Drita (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - AZ (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AZ Alkmaar will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Drita (votes: 2 - 28.6%). AZ (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maloku F. (G) 2. Krasniqi Be. (C) 15. Bejtulai E. 32. Pellumbi J. 26. Ovouka R. 7. Ajzeraj A. 8. Limaj V. 14. Dabiqaj A. 3. Sheji B. 77. Abazaj K. 9. Manaj A.	1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 34. de Wit M. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 15. Chavez Garcia M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 26. Smit K. 7. Weslley Patati 9. Parrott T. 17. Jensen I.
Substitutes
99. Arthur M. 10. Balaj L. 22. Behluli L. (G) 17. Ibrahim S. 19. Krasniqi Bl. 23. Morina E. 36. Mustafa I. 94. Rexhepi L. (G) 20. Soumahoro M. 66. Sylejmani E.	27. Daal R. 4. Dekker M. 22. Dijkstra E. 21. Kwakman D. 11. Sadiq I. 33. Sin M. 23. van Duijl B. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)
Coaches
Ramadani Z.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Mijnans S. ⚽, Jensen I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Abazaj K. ↓, Krasniqi Bl. ↑,
58', 0 - 2, Jensen I. ⚽, Smit K. (A),
62', Ajzeraj A. ↓, Balaj L. ↑,
62', Manaj A. ↓, Soumahoro M. ↑,
63', Limaj V. ↓, Mustafa I. ↑,
64', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
65', Weslley Patati 🟨,
67', Pellumbi J. 🟨,
74', Soumahoro M. 🟨,
75', Weslley Patati ↓, Sin M. ↑,
75', Parrott T. ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
75', Jensen I. ↓, Daal R. ↑,
81', Ovouka R. ↓, Arthur M. ↑,
82', Chavez Garcia M. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,
89', Mustafa I. 🟨,
90', 0 - 3, Sadiq I. ⚽, de Wit M. (A),

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri.

Drita is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

AZ has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Drita may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, AZ is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Drita: Mesa J. (Injury)

There will not play in AZ: Clasie J. (Ankle Injury) Kasius D. (Injury) Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Meerdink M. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Drita: Manaj A. (Injury) Soumahoro M. (Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Zeefuik L. (Inactive)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Drita Gjilan
Kosovo Superliga
06.12.25	Dukagjini - Drita Gjilan	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Drita Gjilan - Ballkani	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Drita Gjilan - Shkendija Tetovo	1:0 ✺
Kosovo Superliga
22.11.25	Prishtina e Re - Drita Gjilan	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Shelbourne - Drita Gjilan	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TLWWW
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
07.12.25	AZ Alkmaar - Go Ahead Eagles	2:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
03.12.25	Zwolle - AZ Alkmaar	1:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
30.11.25	Twente - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	AZ Alkmaar - Shelbourne	2:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
23.11.25	Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TWLWL

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