Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 14

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: De Grolsch Veste (Enschede)

Referee: Manschot J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Canada	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet World
France	DAZN France
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
India	Eurosport, JioTV app
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	Twente		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.7	3	Watch
	2.18	3.7	3.05
	2.24	3.75	3.13
	2.64	3.69	2.45	Watch
	2.26	3.64	3.08	Watch
	2.16	3.5	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.64)	3.66 ↑ (3.65)	2.97 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Twente
41.8%

Draw
26%

AZ Alkmaar
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

25.8%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

26.1%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Twente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Twente's performance.

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AZ Alkmaar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Twente than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Twente that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AZ Alkmaar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.2%	25%	43.7%

Twente - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Twente will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). AZ will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Twente: 12% – 65%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Twente (votes: 1 - 25%). AZ (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - AZ (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Twente (votes: 1 - 20%). AZ (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Unnerstall L. (G) 28. van Rooij B. 23. Lemkin S. 3. Propper R. (C) 39. Rots M. 6. Zerrouki R. 20. van den Belt T. 7. Pjaca M. 14. Hlynsson K. 27. Orjasaeter S. 9. van Wolfswinkel R.	1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 34. de Wit M. 26. Smit K. 6. Koopmeiners P. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 7. Weslley Patati 9. Parrott T. 17. Jensen I.
Substitutes
21. Karssies S. (G) 4. Kjolo M. 5. Kuipers B. 10. Lammers S. 43. Nijstad R. 12. Peixoto G. 11. Rots D. 33. Titulaer B. 22. Tyton P. (G) 25. Vennegoor of Hesselink L. 32. Verschueren A.	75. Bouziane W. 15. Chavez Garcia M. 4. Dekker M. 21. Kwakman D. 14. Natali A. 33. Sin M. 12. Verhulst H. (G) 25. Zeefuik L. 41. Zoet J. (G)
Coaches
van den Brom J.	Martens M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pjaca M. ↓, Rots D. ↑,
48', Goes W. 🟨,
49', Parrott T. 🟨,
62', Smit K. 🟨,
66', Weslley Patati ↓, Sin M. ↑,
69', van Wolfswinkel R. 🟨,
71', van Wolfswinkel R. ↓, Lammers S. ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Rots D. ⚽, van Rooij B. (A),
78', Goes W. ↓, Zeefuik L. ↑,
78', Jensen I. ↓, Bouziane W. ↑,
82', Orjasaeter S. ↓, Kjolo M. ↑,
83', van Rooij B. ↓, Peixoto G. ↑,
84', Dijkstra E. ↓, Chavez Garcia M. ↑,
85', Peixoto G. 🟨,
87', Hlynsson K. ↓, Verschueren A. ↑,
90+2', Chavez Garcia M. 🟨,
90+9', Parrott T. (Pen),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Twente won 1.

Twente is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

AZ has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Twente: Booth T. (Injury) Bruns M. (Muscle Injury) Hilgers M. (Knee Injury) Unuvar N. (Muscle Injury) Weidmann D. (Inactive)

There will not play in AZ: Clasie J. (Ankle Injury) Daal R. (Injury) Kasius D. (Injury) Maikuma S. (Knee Injury) Meerdink M. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Twente won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 23:41. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Twente won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:19. (average 1.6:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Twente
Dutch Eredivisie
22.11.25	Volendam - Twente	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.11.25	Twente - Schalke 04	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
07.11.25	Twente - Telstar	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Groningen - Twente	1:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
30.10.25	Rohda Raalte - Twente	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TWTTW
- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	AZ Alkmaar - Shelbourne	2:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
23.11.25	Heerenveen - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
09.11.25	AZ Alkmaar - PSV Eindhoven	1:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Crystal Palace - AZ Alkmaar	3:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
02.11.25	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
25.05.25	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	3:2
14.05.25	Twente - AZ Alkmaar	2:3
21.12.24	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	1:0
05.05.24	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	2:1
13.01.24	Twente - AZ Alkmaar	2:1
19.03.23	Twente - AZ Alkmaar	2:1
11.09.22	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	1:1

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