Match Info

Scottish Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Tannadice Park (Dundee)


	Dundee United		Ayr United

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.9	4.75
	1.6	3.9	5.15
	1.49	4.16	5.45
	1.53	3.8	5.5
	1.68	4.09	4.98
	1.58	4	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.62)	3.98 ↑ (3.77)	5.19 ↑ (4.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dundee United
58.8%

Draw
23.4%

Ayr United
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

24.3%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

23.6%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dundee United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dundee United than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Dundee United - Ayr United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Richards D. (G) 21. Stephenson L. 37. Cleall-Harding S. 6. Graham R. (C) 23. Keresztes K. 11. Ferry W. 22. Naamo D. 14. Sibbald C. 17. Fatah A. 9. Sapsford Z. 36. Watters M.	38. Russell L. (G) 20. King L. 5. Holt K. 33. McMann S. 55. Finney G. 6. Bannigan S. 8. Dempsey B. (C) 15. Murphy J. 23. Rus M. 7. Dowds A. 22. McKenzie M.
Substitutes
31. Adams R. (G) 8. Camara P. 3. Esselink B. 20. Farrugia N. 4. Iovu I. 77. Moller N. 34. Stirton O. 2. Strain R. 7. Trapanovski K.	17. Bonnar J. 12. Brown A. 3. Dick L. 10. Main C. 1. Mitchell D. (G) 35. Simpson J. 16. Summers B. 11. Thomas D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Murphy J. 🟨,
45+3', Rus M. 🟨,
45+3', Fatah A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sapsford Z. ↓, Trapanovski K. ↑,
46', Murphy J. ↓, Bonnar J. ↑,
65', Watters M. ↓, Stirton O. ↑,
65', Fatah A. ↓, Moller N. ↑,
65', Stephenson L. ↓, Camara P. ↑,
65', Naamo D. ↓, Strain R. ↑,
77', 1 - 0, Moller N. ⚽, Strain R. (A),
81', Rus M. ↓, Summers B. ↑,
82', Dowds A. ↓, Main C. ↑,
85', Bannigan S. ↓, Thomas D. ↑,
89', 2 - 0, Camara P. ⚽, Trapanovski K. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dundee Utd won 5.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ayr may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Dundee Utd is the team to beat.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Dundee Utd won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:15. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Dundee Utd won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:8. (average 1.9:1).

Outrights of Scottish Cup for now

Dundee Utd: 3.03% Ayr: 0.78%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dundee United
Scottish Premier League
10.01.26	Celtic - Dundee United	4:0 ✺
03.01.26	Dundee United - Dundee	0:1 ✺
30.12.25	Livingston - Dundee United	1:3 ✺
27.12.25	Aberdeen - Dundee United	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Dundee United - Hibernian	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LLWTT
- Ayr United
Scottish Challenge Cup
13.01.26	Ayr United - Stranraer	4:1 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
10.01.26	Ayr United - Airdrieonians	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United	2:3 ✺
12.12.25	Ayr United - St. Johnstone	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League Cup
20.07.24	Dundee United - Ayr United	2:1
Scottish Football Championship
20.04.24	Dundee United - Ayr United	1:0
03.02.24	Ayr United - Dundee United	1:2
09.12.23	Dundee United - Ayr United	1:0
26.08.23	Ayr United - Dundee United	0:3
Scottish League Cup
14.08.21	Ayr United - Dundee United	1:2 penalties
Scottish Football Championship
03.03.20	Ayr United - Dundee United	0:0

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