Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 11

Date: 29 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Stade de Roudourou (Guingamp)

Referee: Valnet A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Nova Sport 6
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Slovakia	Voyo
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Usa	beIN Connect
World	Fanatiz


	Guingamp		Ajaccio

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.65	3.6	5.5
	1.65	3.6	5.5	Watch
	1.66	3.73	5.71
	1.7	3.65	4.92	Watch
	1.62	3.6	5.5
	1.7	3.64	5.3	Watch
	1.65	3.6	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (2.06)	3.62 ↑ (3.19)	5.43 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 2 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN La Liga

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Current Win Probability

Guingamp
56.6%

Draw
26%

Ajaccio
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

29.5%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

29.4%

24.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guingamp has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guingamp's performance.

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajaccio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guingamp than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guingamp that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajaccio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.8%	16.7%	12.5%

Guingamp - Ajaccio Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Guingamp will win (votes: 17 - 70.8%). Ajaccio will win (votes: 3 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guingamp: 52.6% – 89%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Basilio E. (G) 22. Sissoko A. 18. Nair S. 24. Lemonnier P. 6. Vallier L. 11. Sagna A. 4. Louiserre D. (C) 8. Sidibe K. 10. Picard H. 13. Hemia A. 9. Labeau B.	16. Sollacaro F. (G) 20. Youssouf M. 31. Ayessa J. 88. Bamba A. 12. Huard M. 99. Santelli B. 4. Barreto M. 6. Mangani T. (C) 22. Soumano M. 26. Jabol-Folcarelli T. 11. Toure B.
Substitutes
21. Ghrieb R. 23. Luvambo T. 2. Maronnier L. 30. Niasse B. (G) 5. Phiri L. 26. Riou M. 17. Siwe J.	25. Anziani J. 9. Ibayi C. 17. Junior Pereira da Silva E. 8. Puch-Herrantz M. 30. Quilichini G. (G) 23. Strata T. 5. Vidal C.
Coaches
Ripoll S.	Chabert M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Santelli B. 🟨,
40', Sissoko A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Toure B. ↓, Anziani J. ↑,
61', Sagna A. ↓, Ghrieb R. ↑,
69', Santelli B. ↓, Ibayi C. ↑,
70', Barreto M. ↓, Strata T. ↑,
71', Labeau B. ↓, Siwe J. ↑,
72', Sidibe K. ↓, Luvambo T. ↑,
76', Louiserre D. ↓, Phiri L. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 0, Ghrieb R. ⚽, Sissoko A. (A),

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 11 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guingamp won 3.

Guingamp is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ajaccio is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Guingamp could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Guingamp is a favorite.

There are questionable in Ajaccio: Touzghar Y. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Guingamp won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14:9 (average 1.6:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Guingamp won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9:5 (average 1.8:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EA Guingamp
French Ligue 2
25.10.24	Metz - Guingamp	1:0 ✺
18.10.24	Guingamp - Pau	0:1 ✺
05.10.24	Clermont - Guingamp	4:1 ✺
30.09.24	Guingamp - Caen	3:1 ✺
24.09.24	Paris FC - Guingamp	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLLWL
- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 2
19.10.24	Amiens - Ajaccio	3:1 ✺
05.10.24	Ajaccio - Martigues	1:1 ✺
27.09.24	Lorient - Ajaccio	3:0 ✺
24.09.24	Ajaccio - Grenoble	2:0 ✺
20.09.24	Caen - Ajaccio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
10.02.24	Ajaccio - Guingamp	3:0
18.09.23	Guingamp - Ajaccio	3:0
12.02.22	Ajaccio - Guingamp	0:1
28.08.21	Guingamp - Ajaccio	1:1
13.03.21	Ajaccio - Guingamp	0:2
23.11.20	Guingamp - Ajaccio	2:2
09.11.19	Guingamp - Ajaccio	1:1

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