Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 19

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Marcel Tribut (Dunkerque)

Referee: Petit A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Dunkerque		Lorient

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.9	2.55	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.5
	2.8	3.2	2.5	Watch
	2.81	3.26	2.48	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.5
	3.14	3.03	2.58	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (3.29)	3.13 ↓ (3.48)	2.52 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dunkerque
32.8%

Draw
29.9%

Lorient
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

27.3%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

28.3%

45.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dunkerque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lorient might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dunkerque than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorient could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.1%	10.5%	47.4%

Dunkerque - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Dunkerque will win (votes: 8 - 42.1%). Lorient will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lorient: 24.9% – 69.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Ortola A. (G) 2. Georgen A. 26. Sangante O. 23. Sasso V. 30. Abner F. 28. Raghouber U. 19. Bammou Y. 22. Skytta N. 20. Bardeli E. 10. Essimi M. 8. Rivera M.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 2. Igor Silva 15. Laporte J. 3. Talbi M. 44. Yongwa D. 62. Avom A. 93. Mvuka Mugisha J. 17. Makengo J. 10. Pagis P. 21. Ponceau J. 22. Kroupi E. J.
Substitutes
18. Courtet G. 1. Jaouen E. (G) 21. Kondo G. 15. Sekongo A. 9. Tejan K. 80. Yassine G. 17. Youssouf B.	75. Fadiga B. 60. Genton E. 66. James I. 24. Kalulu G. 11. Le Bris T. 1. Leroy B. (G) 28. Soumano S.
Coaches
Castro L.	Pantaloni O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Talbi M. ⚽, Kroupi E. J. (A),
23', Makengo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Raghouber U. 🟨,
54', Mvuka Mugisha J. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
59', Rivera M. ↓, Tejan K. ↑,
67', Essimi M. ↓, Courtet G. ↑,
68', Abner F. ↓, Youssouf B. ↑,
69', Avom A. 🟨,
75', Skytta N. ↓, Sekongo A. ↑,
76', Makengo J. ↓, Genton E. ↑,
77', Pagis P. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
81', Genton E. 🟨,
90+1', Igor Silva 🟨,
90+2', Kroupi E. J. ↓, Kalulu G. ↑,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1).

Recent matches Dunkerque is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lorient is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Dunkerque could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Dunkerque have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Lorient: Bamba M. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Dunkerque won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USL Dunkerque
French Ligue 2
10.01.25	Pau - Dunkerque	1:1 ✺
04.01.25	Guingamp - Dunkerque	1:1 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	Auxerre - Dunkerque	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
16.12.24	Dunkerque - Caen	3:1 ✺
09.12.24	Metz - Dunkerque	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 TTWWL
- FC Lorient
Coupe De France
15.01.25	Cannes - Lorient	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
11.01.25	Lorient - Metz	0:0 ✺
04.01.25	Laval - Lorient	2:0 ✺
Coupe De France
21.12.24	Tours - Lorient	Lorient walkover ✺
French Ligue 2
14.12.24	Lorient - Paris FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LTL?W

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
29.10.24	Lorient - Dunkerque	4:2

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