Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 2 - Round 16

Date: 16 December 2024, Monday

Location: Stade Marcel Tribut (Dunkerque)

Referee: Batta F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Usa	beIN Connect, Tubi TV
World	Fanatiz


	Dunkerque		Caen

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.3
	2.15	3.3	3.3	Watch
	2.17	3.43	3.49
	2.09	3.43	3.38	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.3
	2.13	3.46	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.83)	3.33 ↓ (3.52)	3.36 ↓ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 2 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS Xtra

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Current Win Probability

Dunkerque
44%

Draw
28.1%

Caen
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

26.5%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

25.7%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dunkerque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dunkerque's form might have worsened.

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Caen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dunkerque than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dunkerque, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Caen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.6%	14.9%	8.5%

Dunkerque - Caen Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Dunkerque will win (votes: 35 - 76.1%). Caen will win (votes: 4 - 8.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 15.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dunkerque: 63.8% – 88.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Ortola A. (G) 2. Georgen A. 26. Sangante O. (C) 23. Sasso V. 30. Abner F. 28. Raghouber U. 80. Yassine G. 22. Skytta N. 20. Bardeli E. 8. Rivera M. 19. Bammou Y.	16. Clementia Y. (G) 3. Bolumbu D. 91. Ntim E. 29. Thomas R. (C) 28. Lecoeuche Q. 77. Gaucho Debohi D. 10. Brahimi B. 8. Le Bihan M. 14. Rajot L. 7. Gomis T. 19. Mendy A.
Substitutes
18. Courtet G. 10. Essimi M. 4. Fernandez N. 1. Jaouen E. (G) 21. Kondo G. 15. Sekongo A. 9. Tejan K.	23. Autret M. 17. Kyeremeh G. 20. Lebreton N. 1. Mandrea A. (G) 37. Milliner L. 39. Tome G. 36. Verhaeghe R.
Coaches
Castro L.	Seube N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Raghouber U. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
52', Gaucho Debohi D. 🟨,
53', 1 - 0, Bammou Y. ⚽, Rivera M. (A),
60', Yassine G. ↓, Tejan K. ↑,
61', Gaucho Debohi D. ↓, Lebreton N. ↑,
61', Le Bihan M. ↓, Kyeremeh G. ↑,
61', Gomis T. ↓, Milliner L. ↑,
65', 2 - 0, Sasso V. ⚽,
68', Bolumbu D. ↓, Autret M. ↑,
68', Rajot L. ↓, Tome G. ↑,
69', Lebreton N. 🟨,
73', Rivera M. ↓, Courtet G. ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Brahimi B. ⚽,
75', Milliner L. 🟨,
80', Skytta N. ↓, Sekongo A. ↑,
80', Bammou Y. ↓, Essimi M. ↑,
82', Lecoeuche Q. 🟨,
83', 3 - 1, Courtet G. (Pen),

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Ligue 2 (Relegation)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dunkerque won 0.

Dunkerque is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Caen is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Caen could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Dunkerque will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Caen: Bagbema Z. (Injury) Coulibaly K. (Injury) Henry V. (Injury) M'Vila Y. (Injury) Sy L. (Knee Injury) Tavares H. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Dunkerque won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7:10 (average 1.2:1.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Dunkerque won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:6 (average 1.7:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USL Dunkerque
French Ligue 2
09.12.24	Metz - Dunkerque	2:0 ✺
Coupe De France
30.11.24	Aubervilliers - Dunkerque	0:2 ✺
French Ligue 2
25.11.24	Dunkerque - Ajaccio	1:0 ✺
08.11.24	Grenoble - Dunkerque	0:1 ✺
01.11.24	Dunkerque - Amiens	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LWWWW
- SM Caen
French Ligue 2
06.12.24	Laval - Caen	1:0 ✺
22.11.24	Caen - Rodez	3:3 ✺
Coupe De France
16.11.24	Chartres - Caen	0:4 ✺
French Ligue 2
09.11.24	Metz - Caen	1:0 ✺
02.11.24	Caen - Bastia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
10.05.24	Dunkerque - Caen	2:2
16.12.23	Caen - Dunkerque	1:0
02.04.22	Caen - Dunkerque	2:1
23.10.21	Dunkerque - Caen	1:1
20.04.21	Caen - Dunkerque	1:1
18.12.20	Dunkerque - Caen	2:3

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