Match Info

Ligue 1 - Relegation - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
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Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Metz		Dunkerque

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.9	Watch
	1.87	3.4	4.1
	1.92	3.55	4
	1.94	3.53	4.25
	1.87	3.58	4	Watch
	1.91	3.5	3.9
	1.91	3.54	4.21	Watch
	1.92	3.55	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.78)	3.51 ↓ (3.86)	4.05 ↓ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
49.6%

Draw
27%

Dunkerque
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

24.6%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

24.2%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Dunkerque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dunkerque than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Metz - Dunkerque Predictions

Users Predictions: Metz will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Metz will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
61. Sy P. (G) 39. Kouao K. 38. Sane S. 4. Mboula U. 3. Udol M. (C) 20. Deminguet J. 12. Toure A. 10. Diallo P. A. 7. Hein G. 19. Bokele Mputu M. 14. Sabaly C.	1. Jaouen E. (G) 2. Georgen A. 26. Sangante O. (C) 23. Sasso V. 30. Abner F. 28. Raghouber U. 80. Yassine G. 22. Skytta N. 20. Bardeli E. 8. Rivera M. 18. Courtet G.
Substitutes
2. Colin M. 18. Gueye I. 36. Jallow A. 16. Oukidja A. (G) 21. Stambouli B. 8. Traore I. 22. Van Den Kerkhof K.	31. Ba A. 19. Bammou Y. 21. Kondo G. 24. Kone I. (G) 27. Linguet A. 15. Sekongo A. 9. Tejan K.
Coaches
Le Mignan S.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Raghouber U. ↓, Linguet A. ↑,
30', Deminguet J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Kouao K. 🟨,
49', Courtet G. 🟨,
56', Abner F. 🟨,
59', Sangante O. 🟥,
60', Sasso V. 🟨,
63', Skytta N. ↓, Ba A. ↑,
64', Yassine G. ↓, Kondo G. ↑,
68', Diallo P. A. ↓, Gueye I. ↑,
68', Bokele Mputu M. ↓, Jallow A. ↑,
72', Deminguet J. ↓, Stambouli B. ↑,
77', Courtet G. ↓, Bammou Y. ↑,
77', Bardeli E. ↓, Sekongo A. ↑,
85', Kouao K. ↓, Van Den Kerkhof K. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 0, Bammou Y. (Own goal),

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Metz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Metz is the team to beat.

There will not play in Metz: Asoro J. (Injury) Deminguet J. (Injury) Jallow A. (Inactive) Oukidja A. (Inactive) Sane S. (Injury)

There will not play in Dunkerque: Al Saad M. (Inactive) Essimi M. (Inactive) Fortuna N. (Inactive) Ortola A. (Inactive) Pitu A. (Inactive) Queiros D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Metz: Sane I. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Metz won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Metz won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 2
10.05.25	Laval - Metz	2:3 ✺
02.05.25	Metz - Rodez	3:3 ✺
26.04.25	Pau - Metz	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Metz - Red Star	2:2 ✺
11.04.25	Martigues - Metz	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTLTW
- USL Dunkerque
French Ligue 1
14.05.25	Dunkerque - Guingamp	1:0 ✺
French Ligue 2
10.05.25	Red Star - Dunkerque	1:1 ✺
02.05.25	Dunkerque - Laval	0:0 ✺
25.04.25	Troyes - Dunkerque	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	Dunkerque - Grenoble	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
15.03.25	Dunkerque - Metz	2:3
09.12.24	Metz - Dunkerque	2:0
Coupe De France
07.01.18	Dunkerque - Metz	2:4

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