Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

Referee: Paradis G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 7
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Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
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World	Onefootball


	Lorient		Metz

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.6	4.33	Watch
	1.78	3.7	4.4
	1.82	3.7	4.25
	1.76	3.77	4.51
	1.81	3.71	4.32	Watch
	1.8	3.4	4.2
	1.88	3.76	4.62	Watch
	1.84	3.66	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.74)	3.66 ↓ (3.85)	4.36 ↓ (4.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
52.3%

Draw
25.9%

Metz
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

24.5%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

24.1%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metz than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.8%	7.1%	19%

Lorient - Metz Predictions

Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Lorient will win (votes: 31 - 75.6%). Metz will win (votes: 7 - 17.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 7.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lorient: 62.5% – 88.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Lorient (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Metz (votes: 6 - 46.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
38. Mvogo Y. (G) 5. Meite B. 32. Adjei N. 2. Igor Silva 93. Mvuka Mugisha J. 6. Abergel L. (C) 8. Cadiou N. 11. Le Bris T. 17. Makengo J. 28. Soumano S. 10. Pagis P.	1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 38. Sane S. 4. Mboula U. 2. Colin M. 20. Deminguet J. 8. Traore B. 11. Mbaye M. 10. Hein G. (C) 7. Tsitaishvili G. 23. Sane I.
Substitutes
33. Akakpo I. 9. Bamba M. 12. Dieng B. 21. Kamara B. (G) 29. Karim D. 35. Leaudais L. 19. Monnier I. 14. Sanusi T. 34. Semedo D.	9. Abuashvili G. 99. Asoro J. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 40. Ba O. (G) 19. Bokele Mputu M. 25. Melieres C. 21. Stambouli B. 12. Toure A. 15. Yegbe T.
Coaches
Pantaloni O.	Le Mignan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Sane S. ⚽, Hein G. (A),
45+1', Sane I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Deminguet J. ↓, Toure A. ↑,
60', Makengo J. ↓, Dieng B. ↑,
60', Soumano S. ↓, Bamba M. ↑,
63', Bamba M. 🟨,
69', Kouao K. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Dieng B. ⚽, Bamba M. (A),
74', Abergel L. ↓, Karim D. ↑,
79', Sane I. ↓, Asoro J. ↑,
84', Traore B. ↓, Stambouli B. ↑,
84', Tsitaishvili G. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 2.

Lorient is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Metz has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lorient is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Lorient: Avom A. (International duty) Faye A. (Foot Injury) Katseris P. (Thigh Injury) Kouassi A. (International duty) Talbi M. (International duty) Tosin A. (International duty) Toure I. (Knee Injury) Yongwa D. (International duty)

There will not play in Metz: Diallo H. (International duty) Gbamin J. (International duty) Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Mboula U. (Muscle Injury) Sabaly C. (International duty) Sy P. (Concussion)

There are questionable in Metz: Yegbe T. (Ankle Injury)

We predict that Lorient will win today's game, with odds of 1.79.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:21. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.9:0.9).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lorient: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Le Gosier - Lorient	0:7 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.12.25	Strasbourg - Lorient	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Lorient - Lyon	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Lorient - Nice	3:1 ✺
23.11.25	Nantes - Lorient	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WTWWT
- FC Metz
Coupe De France
20.12.25	Biesheim - Metz	0:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
13.12.25	Metz - Paris Saint-Germain	2:3 ✺
07.12.25	Auxerre - Metz	3:1 ✺
28.11.25	Metz - Rennes	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Brest - Metz	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
11.01.25	Lorient - Metz	0:0
21.09.24	Metz - Lorient	1:1
French Ligue 1
04.02.24	Metz - Lorient	1:2
26.11.23	Lorient - Metz	2:3
20.04.22	Lorient - Metz	1:0
12.12.21	Metz - Lorient	4:1
16.05.21	Lorient - Metz	2:1

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