Match Info

Paulista A3 - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	EC São Bernardo		Marília

	1	X	2
	2.72	2.92	2.48
	2.64	2.92	2.6
	2.44	3.04	2.83	Watch
	2.4	2.9	2.8
	2.29	3.23	2.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.87)	3 ↓ (3.15)	2.74 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC São Bernardo
36.4%

Draw
30.3%

Marília
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

29.1%

39%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

29.3%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Marília has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marília might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EC São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marília than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marília could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

EC São Bernardo - Marília Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
59', 1 - 0, Douglas Dias (Own goal),
86', 2 - 0, Joaninha ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

EC São Bernardo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Marília is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, EC São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, EC São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC São Bernardo
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
21.03.26	União São João - EC São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Portuguesa Santista	0:3 ✺
11.03.26	Bandeirante - EC São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Itapirense - EC São Bernardo	0:3 ✺
04.03.26	EC São Bernardo - Rio Branco de Americana	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLTWW
- Marília AC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
21.03.26	Marília - Francana	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	XV de Jaú - Marília	1:0 ✺
11.03.26	Marília - União Suzano	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Rio Branco de Americana - Marília	0:2 ✺
04.03.26	Marília - Rio Claro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
24.01.26	EC São Bernardo - Marília	1:1
14.02.25	Marília - EC São Bernardo	3:1
08.03.24	EC São Bernardo - Marília	2:2

EC São Bernardo - Marília: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide