Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 16 May 2025, Friday

Location: Southwest University Park (El Paso, TX)

Referee: Dopka G. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	El Paso Locomotive		Indy Eleven

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.3	2.95
	2.16	3.5	3.05
	2.16	3.61	3.08
	2.16	3.6	3.09	Watch
	2.15	3.45	3.05	Watch
	2.16	3.5	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.58)	3.49 ↑ (3.12)	3.05 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Paso Locomotive
43.1%

Draw
26.5%

Indy Eleven
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

29.8%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

29.4%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Paso Locomotive has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in El Paso Locomotive's performance.

Indy Eleven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Paso Locomotive than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with El Paso Locomotive that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Indy Eleven than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

El Paso Locomotive - Indy Eleven Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Waite J. (G) 24. Diaz M. 25. Ortiz A. 14. Avila R. 3. Ackwei W. 6. Calvillo E. (C) 8. Daroma F. 12. Ruiz R. 13. Cabrera A. 16. Gabriel Torres 10. Moreno A.	98. Sulte H. (G) 30. Ofeimu B. 3. Hogan P. 41. Musa J. 2. O'Brien J. 14. Quinn A. (C) 5. Murphy J. 16. Stanley A. 22. Amoh E. 99. Foster M. 8. Blake J.
Substitutes
20. Carter D. 30. Coronado R. 9. Lopez F. 1. Mora-Mora S. (G) 11. Moshobane T. 18. Quezada A. 5. Tony Alfaro 66. Vazquez R.	23. Charles-Cook R. (G) 18. Collier E. 19. Kizza E. 6. Lindley C. 27. Rendon B. 33. White H. 9. Williams R.
Coaches
Cabrera W.	McAuley S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Moreno A. ⚽, Ortiz A. (A),
29', Blake J. 🟨,
32', 2 - 0, Calvillo E. ⚽, Cabrera A. (A),
37', Foster M. 🟨,
42', Ruiz R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', O'Brien J. ↓, Rendon B. ↑,
46', Ofeimu B. ↓, Collier E. ↑,
46', Amoh E. ↓, Williams R. ↑,
47', Hogan P. 🟨,
65', Diaz M. 🟨,
74', Avila R. ↓, Coronado R. ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Daroma F. ⚽, Cabrera A. (A),
84', Blake J. ↓, Lindley C. ↑,
84', Foster M. ↓, Kizza E. ↑,
85', 3 - 1, Kizza E. ⚽, Quinn A. (A),
87', Moreno A. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 9).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, El Paso has had a series of away games.

El Paso could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, El Paso won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, El Paso won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- El Paso Locomotive
USL Championship
10.05.25	Tulsa - El Paso Locomotive	1:1 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.25	Austin FC - El Paso Locomotive	3:2 ✺
USL Championship
03.05.25	El Paso Locomotive - New Mexico United	3:0 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Texoma - El Paso Locomotive	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - El Paso Locomotive	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 TLWWT
- Indy Eleven
USL Championship
10.05.25	Sacramento Republic - Indy Eleven	1:1 ✺
US Open Cup
07.05.25	Philadelphia Union - Indy Eleven	2:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
03.05.25	Indy Eleven - Detroit City	2:2 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Forward Madison - Indy Eleven	0:4 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Indy Eleven - Charleston Battery	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
14.09.24	Indy Eleven - El Paso Locomotive	3:1
19.08.23	El Paso Locomotive - Indy Eleven	2:3
09.06.21	El Paso Locomotive - Indy Eleven	2:0

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