Match Info

Primera C - Round 25

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Gildo Ghersinich (Buenos Aires)


	El Porvenir		Lugano

	1	X	2
	2.23	2.86	3.26
	2.14	2.92	3.46
	2.15	2.95	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.16)	2.91 ↓ (2.98)	3.34 ↑ (3.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Porvenir
41.7%

Draw
31.2%

Lugano
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

30.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

29.5%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Porvenir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Porvenir than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

El Porvenir - Lugano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Alvarenga M. ⚽,
17', 1 - 1, Vielma P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+5', 2 - 1, Franco A. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 10 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Porvenir won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

El Porvenir could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, El Porvenir won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, El Porvenir won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club El Porvenir
Argentinian Primera C
29.08.25	Berazategui - El Porvenir	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	El Porvenir - Ituzaingó	1:1 ✺
18.08.25	Deportivo Español - El Porvenir	0:2 ✺
10.08.25	El Porvenir - Atlético Claypole	0:0 ✺
05.08.25	Deportivo Muñiz - El Porvenir	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.3 TTWTT
- CA Lugano
Argentinian Primera C
30.08.25	Lugano - Defensores de Cambaceres	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Leandro N. Alem - Lugano	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Lugano - Mercedes	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Central Córdoba de Rosario - Lugano	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Lugano - Puerto Nuevo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
25.05.25	Lugano - El Porvenir	2:0
28.09.24	El Porvenir - Lugano	1:0
28.04.24	Lugano - El Porvenir	2:1
Argentinian Primera D
25.11.23	Lugano - El Porvenir	0:1
21.08.23	El Porvenir - Lugano	3:1
18.03.23	Lugano - El Porvenir	0:1

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