Match Info

Bundesliga - Relegation - Final

Date: 26 May 2025, Monday

Location: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde (Spiesen-Elversberg)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Elversberg		Heidenheim

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.5	3.6	Watch
	2.2	3.5	3.2
	2.15	3.6	3.4	Watch
	2.14	3.6	3.57
	2.16	3.51	3.5	Watch
	2.25	3.6	2.9	Watch
	2.15	3.57	3.5	Watch
	2.15	3.6	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.47)	3.56 ↓ (3.66)	3.38 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elversberg
44.6%

Draw
27%

Heidenheim
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

26.1%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

26.7%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elversberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elversberg's performance.

Heidenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Heidenheim might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elversberg than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elversberg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Heidenheim could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.4%	18.6%	7%

Elversberg - Heidenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Elversberg will win (votes: 32 - 74.4%). Heidenheim will win (votes: 3 - 7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 18.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Elversberg: 61.4% – 87.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Elversberg (3.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Elversberg (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25, 1st Half - Elversberg (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Elversberg (1.64) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Heidenheim (1.64) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Elversberg will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Elversberg (votes: 17 - 77.3%). Heidenheim (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. Kristof N. (G) 2. Baum E. 19. Pinckert L. 3. Le Joncour F. 33. Neubauer M. 6. Fellhauer R. (C) 8. Sahin S. 25. Petkov L. 30. Damar M. 29. Zimmerschied T. 10. Asllani F.	1. Muller K. (G) 2. Busch M. 6. Mainka P. (C) 4. Siersleben T. 23. Traore O. H. 20. Kerber L. 3. Schoppner J. 13. Kratzig F. 8. Scienza L. 17. Honsak M. 18. Pieringer M.
Substitutes
28. Boss T. (G) 22. Ebnoutalib Y. 7. Feil M. 27. Gerezgiher F. 31. Rohr M. 17. Schmahl F. 24. Schnellbacher L. 23. Sickinger C. 21. Stock P.	21. Beck A. 31. Conteh S. 39. Dorsch N. 40. Feller F. (G) 19. Fohrenbach J. 5. Gimber B. 16. Niehues J. 10. Wanner P. 12. Zivzivadze B.
Coaches
Steffen H.	Schmidt F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Honsak M. ⚽, Scienza L. (A),
18', Sahin S. ↓, Sickinger C. ↑,
23', Pieringer M. ↓, Zivzivadze B. ↑,
31', 1 - 1, Fellhauer R. ⚽, Zimmerschied T. (A),
43', Traore O. H. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', Kerber L. 🟨,
68', Zimmerschied T. 🟨,
78', Kerber L. ↓, Dorsch N. ↑,
78', Honsak M. ↓, Wanner P. ↑,
79', Wanner P. 🟨,
86', Zimmerschied T. ↓, Schnellbacher L. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 2, Scienza L. ⚽, Wanner P. (A),
90+7', Petkov L. ↓, Feil M. ↑,
90+7', Damar M. ↓, Ebnoutalib Y. ↑,
90+7', Scienza L. ↓, Gimber B. ↑,
90+7', Kratzig F. ↓, Fohrenbach J. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 2-2. 2nd leg.

Elversberg is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Heidenheim has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Elversberg has had a series of away games.

Elversberg might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Elversberg: Dragon P. (Knee Injury) Jakel F. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Heidenheim: Janes L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Elversberg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Elversberg won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Elversberg - the odds 2.47 are the expected chance of winning is 38.72%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SV Elversberg
German Bundesliga
22.05.25	Heidenheim - Elversberg	2:2 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
18.05.25	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	1:2 ✺
10.05.25	Elversberg - Eintracht Braunschweig	3:0 ✺
04.05.25	Nürnberg - Elversberg	1:3 ✺
26.04.25	Paderborn - Elversberg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWWWT
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German Bundesliga
22.05.25	Heidenheim - Elversberg	2:2 ✺
17.05.25	Heidenheim - Werder Bremen	1:4 ✺
10.05.25	Union Berlin - Heidenheim	0:3 ✺
02.05.25	Heidenheim - Bochum	0:0 ✺
25.04.25	Stuttgart - Heidenheim	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.2 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
22.05.25	Heidenheim - Elversberg	2:2
German 3 Bundesliga
19.04.14	Elversberg - Heidenheim	1:1
09.11.13	Heidenheim - Elversberg	1:0

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