Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 28

Date: 3 September 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne (Loja) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Quinonez L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Chile	20:00	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	19:00	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	19:00	Zapping Sports
Usa	20:00	SportsEngine Play


	Libertad Loja		Emelec

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.20	2.95	3.00
	2.22	3	3.15	Watch
	2.32	3.15	3.42
	2.29	3.13	3.25	Watch
	2.25	3	3.25
	2.28	3.1	3.24	Watch
	2.22	3.05	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (3.25)	3.07 ↓ (3.2)	3.23 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Loja
41.2%

Draw
30.1%

Emelec
28.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.6%

29.1%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

27%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Libertad Loja's performance.

Emelec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Emelec might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Libertad Loja that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Emelec could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Libertad Loja - Emelec Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Libertad will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Emelec will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (C) 17. Patta E. 6. Caicedo B. 2. Morinigo R. 19. Quinonez O. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 70. Branda V. 63. Valencia C. 80. Pineda Arana X. E. 49. Coronel D. 33. Chere A.	1. Valero M. (G) 13. Gomez L. 27. Leon F. (C) 2. Leguizamon A. 30. Mina A. 15. Fragozo L. 5. Mina A. 32. Valverde J. 19. Ruiz J. 10. Pizzini F. 9. Carrillo R.
Substitutes
11. Batalla H. 30. Bravo J. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 10. Cortez Casierra G. J. 66. Estacio J. 5. Gruezo C. 25. Lucas M. 1. Mina P. (G) 7. Orejuela C. 18. Quinonez Y.	11. Arce T. 17. Ayovi J. 90. Bores E. (G) 21. Cevallos J. 6. Griffith V. 80. Herrera O. 7. Klimowicz L. 8. Napoli G. 16. Quintero S. 59. Saya R. 4. Segura E. 51. Valencia S.
Coaches
Buch J. P.	Medran E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Valverde J. 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Valencia C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Morinigo R. 🟨,
56', Ruiz J. ↓, Napoli G. ↑,
56', Mina A. ↓, Cevallos J. ↑,
56', Pizzini F. ↓, Saya R. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Cevallos J. ⚽, Carrillo R. (A),
63', Caicedo B. 🟨,
63', Pineda Arana X. E. ↓, Bravo J. ↑,
70', Coronel D. ↓, Cortez Casierra G. J. ↑,
70', Chere A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
76', Fragozo L. ↓, Griffith V. ↑,
83', Branda V. ↓, Orejuela C. ↑,
85', Carrillo R. ↓, Klimowicz L. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 1.

Libertad is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Emelec has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Libertad will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Libertad won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Libertad won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Emelec - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.29%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.08.26	SD Aucas - Libertad Loja	1:0 ✺
24.08.26	Libertad Loja - Deportivo Macará	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Guayaquil City - Libertad Loja	2:2 ✺
10.08.26	Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1 ✺
31.07.26	Libertad Loja - Orense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.6 LWTWW
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
30.08.26	Emelec - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	LDU Quito - Emelec	2:0 ✺
16.08.26	Emelec - Técnico Universitario	2:1 ✺
09.08.26	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:0 ✺
01.08.26	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.05.26	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:1
03.08.25	Libertad Loja - Emelec	1:2
11.04.25	Emelec - Libertad Loja	1:1
30.11.24	Libertad Loja - Emelec	2:1
01.06.24	Emelec - Libertad Loja	0:0
04.08.23	Libertad Loja - Emelec	0:0
26.02.23	Emelec - Libertad Loja	2:0

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