Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 26

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, Sporty TV, StarTimes App, SuperSport Africa 2, ZAP
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Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
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Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Chile	Disney+
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Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
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Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
India	GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Sport 2
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
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Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
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North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
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Philippines	Cignal Play, Premier Football
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
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Turkey	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
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Uruguay	Disney+
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Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Empoli		Atalanta

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.5	1.48	Watch
	6.4	4.45	1.49
	6.96	4.55	1.49
	7.03	4.57	1.48	Watch
	6	4.33	1.44
	6.63	4.59	1.51	Watch
	6.5	4.5	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.57 ↑ (5.88)	4.5 ↑ (4.25)	1.48 ↓ (1.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

Watch this match and Italian Serie A with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
14.5%

Draw
21.2%

Atalanta
64.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.2%

22.5%

61.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16%

22.8%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Atalanta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atalanta than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	13.8%	75.9%

Empoli - Atalanta Predictions

Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 6 - 10.5%). Atalanta will win (votes: 43 - 75.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 14%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atalanta: 64.2% – 86.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silvestri M. (G) 22. De Sciglio M. 2. Goglichidze S. 3. Pezzella G. 11. Gyasi E. 5. Grassi A. (C) 6. Henderson L. 13. Cacace L. 99. Esposito Se. 93. Maleh Y. 18. Kouame C.	29. Carnesecchi M. (G) 5. Posch S. 19. Djimsiti B. 23. Kolasinac S. 16. Bellanova R. 15. De Roon M. (C) 8. Pasalic M. 77. Zappacosta D. 17. De Ketelaere C. 11. Lookman A. 32. Retegui M.
Substitutes
36. Bacci J. 37. Bembnista D. 98. Brancolini F. (G) 89. Campaniello T. 29. Colombo L. 90. Konate I. 20. Kovalenko V. 7. Sambia J. 12. Seghetti J. (G) 31. Tosto L. 23. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 27. Zurkowski S.	44. Brescianini M. 7. Cuadrado J. 49. Del Lungo T. 13. Ederson 27. Palestra M. 28. Patricio R. (G) 31. Rossi F. (G) 22. Ruggeri M. 24. Samardzic L. 6. Sulemana I. 2. Toloi R. 45. Vavassori D. 48. Vlahovic V.
Coaches
D'Aversa R.	Gasperini G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
27', 0 - 1, Gyasi E. (Own goal),
33', 0 - 2, Retegui M. ⚽, Djimsiti B. (A),
43', 0 - 3, Lookman A. ⚽, Retegui M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', 0 - 4, Lookman A. ⚽, De Roon M. (A),
57', Gyasi E. ↓, Sambia J. ↑,
58', Kouame C. ↓, Colombo L. ↑,
63', De Ketelaere C. ↓, Ederson ↑,
63', Djimsiti B. ↓, Toloi R. ↑,
67', Carnesecchi M. 🟨,
72', Grassi A. ↓, Zurkowski S. ↑,
72', Esposito Se. ↓, Campaniello T. ↑,
74', 0 - 5, Zappacosta D. ⚽, Pasalic M. (A),
76', Lookman A. ↓, Cuadrado J. ↑,
76', Pasalic M. ↓, Brescianini M. ↑,
83', Maleh Y. ↓, Kovalenko V. ↑,
86', Zappacosta D. ↓, Ruggeri M. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Empoli won 0.

Empoli has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Atalanta is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Empoli could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Atalanta is a favorite.

There will not play in Empoli: Haas N. (Knee Injury) Marianucci L. (Red Card) Pellegri P. (Knee Injury) Sazonov S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Atalanta: Kossounou O. (Thigh Injury) Maldini D. (Muscle Injury) Scalvini G. (Shoulder Injury) Scamacca G. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Empoli: Anjorin F. (Thigh Injury) Brancolini F. (Injury) Ebuehi T. (Knee Injury) Fazzini J. (Thigh Injury) Ismajli A. (Thigh Injury) Solbakken O. (Shoulder Injury) Viti M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Atalanta: Hien I. (Muscle Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Empoli won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 11:24 (average 0.7:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Empoli won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4:13 (average 0.6:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie A
16.02.25	Udinese - Empoli	3:0 ✺
08.02.25	Empoli - Milan	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Juventus - Empoli	4:1 ✺
25.01.25	Empoli - Bologna	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	Inter Milan - Empoli	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLTL
- Atalanta
UEFA Champions League
18.02.25	Atalanta - Club Brugge	1:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
15.02.25	Atalanta - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.02.25	Club Brugge - Atalanta	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
08.02.25	Verona - Atalanta	0:5 ✺
Coppa Italia
04.02.25	Atalanta - Bologna	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
22.12.24	Atalanta - Empoli	3:2
28.04.24	Atalanta - Empoli	2:0
30.10.23	Empoli - Atalanta	0:3
17.03.23	Atalanta - Empoli	2:1
30.10.22	Empoli - Atalanta	0:2
21.05.22	Atalanta - Empoli	0:1
17.10.21	Empoli - Atalanta	1:4

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