Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 24

Date: 8 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Pairetto L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, New World Sport App
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	ESPN
Asia	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	TLN, VIVA
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
India	GXR World
Indonesia	Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Ireland	Shabake 3
Israel	ONE Sport 2, Sport 3
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Maldives	ICE Sports
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 2 Caribbean, ESPN Norte
Norway	VG+
Peru	ESPN
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tanzania	Azam Sports 4
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 1, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball, Setanta Sports 1 Eurasia


	Empoli		Milan

	1	X	2
	4.75	4	1.67	Watch
	5	3.75	1.7
	4.9	3.95	1.68	Watch
	5.49	3.95	1.69
	5.58	3.87	1.67	Watch
	4.8	3.7	1.7
	5.59	3.87	1.73	Watch
	5	4	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.14 ↑ (4.78)	3.89 ↑ (3.76)	1.69 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Italian Serie A with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
18.7%

Draw
24.7%

Milan
56.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.9%

25.3%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.4%

24.7%

56.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.1%	87.9%

Empoli - Milan Predictions

Users Predictions: Milan will win (57 of 65 users predict this - 87.69%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.7% – 95.68%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 22. De Sciglio M. 35. Marianucci L. 21. Viti M. 11. Gyasi E. 6. Henderson L. 5. Grassi A. (C) 3. Pezzella G. 99. Esposito Se. 13. Cacace L. 29. Colombo L.	16. Maignan M. (C) 32. Walker K. 23. Tomori F. 31. Pavlovic S. 19. Hernandez T. 80. Musah Y. 29. Fofana Y. 14. Reijnders T. 20. Jimenez A. 90. Abraham T. 79. Joao Felix
Substitutes
36. Bacci J. 40. Brayan 39. Falcusan D. 2. Goglichidze S. 90. Konate I. 18. Kouame C. 7. Sambia J. 12. Seghetti J. (G) 1. Silvestri M. (G) 31. Tosto L. 27. Zurkowski S.	33. Bartesaghi D. 73. Camarda F. 21. Chukwueze S. 46. Gabbia M. 7. Gimenez S. 10. Leao R. 11. Pulisic C. 99. Sottil R. 57. Sportiello M. (G) 42. Terracciano F. 28. Thiaw M. 96. Torriani L. (G)
Coaches
D'Aversa R.	Conceicao S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Joao Felix 🟨,
28', Viti M. ↓, Goglichidze S. ↑,
36', Tomori F. 🟨,
45+3', Henderson L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Jimenez A. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
46', Abraham T. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
46', Fofana Y. ↓, Pulisic C. ↑,
55', Tomori F. 🟨,
62', Grassi A. 🟨,
65', Marianucci L. 🟥,
65', Gimenez S. 🟨,
68', 0 - 1, Leao R. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
69', Reijnders T. ↓, Thiaw M. ↑,
70', Henderson L. ↓, Kouame C. ↑,
70', Colombo L. ↓, Zurkowski S. ↑,
76', 0 - 2, Gimenez S. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
80', Grassi A. ↓, Bacci J. ↑,
80', Esposito Se. ↓, Konate I. ↑,
84', Joao Felix ↓, Terracciano F. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Empoli won 0.

Empoli is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Milan is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Empoli could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Milan have a series of home games.

In this match Milan is a favorite.

There will not play in Empoli: Haas N. (Knee Injury) Maleh Y. (Red Card) Pellegri P. (Knee Injury) Sazonov S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Milan: Bondo W. (Thigh Injury) Emerson Royal (Muscle Injury) Florenzi A. (Knee Injury) Loftus-Cheek R. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Empoli: Anjorin F. (Thigh Injury) Brancolini F. (Injury) Ebuehi T. (Knee Injury) Fazzini J. (Thigh Injury) Ismajli A. (Thigh Injury) Solbakken O. (Shoulder Injury)

Last 15 head-to-head matches Empoli won 1 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 13:31 (average 0.9:2.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Empoli won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9:19 (average 1.3:2.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie A
02.02.25	Juventus - Empoli	4:1 ✺
25.01.25	Empoli - Bologna	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	Inter Milan - Empoli	3:1 ✺
11.01.25	Empoli - Lecce	1:3 ✺
04.01.25	Venezia - Empoli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTLLT
- AC Milan
Coppa Italia
05.02.25	Milan - Roma	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.02.25	Milan - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Dinamo Zagreb - Milan	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
26.01.25	Milan - Parma	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.01.25	Milan - Girona	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
30.11.24	Milan - Empoli	3:0
10.03.24	Milan - Empoli	1:0
07.01.24	Empoli - Milan	0:3
07.04.23	Milan - Empoli	0:0
01.10.22	Empoli - Milan	1:3
12.03.22	Milan - Empoli	1:0
22.12.21	Empoli - Milan	2:4

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