Match Info

Serie B - Round 18

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Pezzuto I. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Empoli		Frosinone

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.25	Watch
	2.82	3.2	2.42	Watch
	2.78	3.41	2.44	Watch
	2.75	3.3	2.38
	2.9	3.38	2.43	Watch
	3	3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.65)	3.25 ↑ (2.99)	2.4 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
32.8%

Draw
28.6%

Frosinone
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

31.3%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

33.5%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Frosinone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Frosinone's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frosinone than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Frosinone, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	37.5%	54.2%

Empoli - Frosinone Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 2 - 8.3%). Frosinone will win (votes: 13 - 54.2%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Frosinone: 34.3% – 74.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

AH 0 - Frosinone (1.77) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Empoli (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Empoli (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Frosinone (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Fulignati A. (C) 29. Tosto L. 34. Guarino G. 5. Obaretin N. 11. Shpendi S. 18. Ghion A. 14. Yepes G. 27. Moruzzi B. 10. Ilie R. 15. Ceesay J. 19. Nasti M.	22. Palmisani L. (G) 5. Marchizza R. 2. Cittadini G. 30. Monterisi I. (C) 79. Bracaglia G. 14. Calo G. 8. Koutsoupias I. 10. Gelli F. 7. Ghedjemis F. 17. Kvernadze G. 9. Raimondo A.
Substitutes
8. Belardinelli L. 99. Bianchi F. 79. Carboni F. 2. Curto M. 6. Degli Innocenti D. 24. Ebuehi T. 12. Gasparini M. (G) 32. Haas N. 25. Ignacchiti L. 90. Konate I. 1. Perisan S. (G) 77. Popov B.	99. Barcella K. 4. Biraschi D. 16. Cichella M. 19. Corrado N. 18. Grosso F. 92. Kone B. L. 32. Masciangelo E. 75. Pisseri M. (G) 1. Sherri A. (G) 90. Vergani E. 28. Zilli M.
Coaches
Dionisi A.	Alvini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Yepes G. 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Raimondo A. ⚽, Marchizza R. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Nasti M. ⚽, Ilie R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Yepes G. ↓, Degli Innocenti D. ↑,
52', Kvernadze G. 🟨,
55', Cittadini G. 🟨,
66', Nasti M. ↓, Konate I. ↑,
66', Ghion A. ↓, Ignacchiti L. ↑,
74', Ilie R. ↓, Haas N. ↑,
75', Gelli F. ↓, Grosso F. ↑,
75', Marchizza R. ↓, Corrado N. ↑,
76', Calo G. 🟨,
78', Tosto L. ↓, Curto M. ↑,
83', Raimondo A. ↓, Zilli M. ↑,
89', Kvernadze G. ↓, Masciangelo E. ↑,
89', Koutsoupias I. ↓, Barcella K. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 3.

Empoli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Frosinone is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Empoli: Curto M. (Thigh Injury) Ebuehi T. (Chest Injury) Lovato M. (Injury) Popov B. (Inactive) Saporiti E. (Injury)

There will not play in Frosinone: Gori L. (Knee Injury) Oyono A. (International duty) Oyono J. (International duty) Raychev A. (Inactive) Selvini A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Empoli: Pellegri P. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 1.8:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Empoli won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie B
21.12.25	Mantova - Empoli	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Juve Stabia - Empoli	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Empoli - Palermo	1:3 ✺
29.11.25	Empoli - Bari	5:0 ✺
22.11.25	Avellino - Empoli	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WLLWW
- Frosinone Calcio
Italian Serie B
20.12.25	Frosinone - Spezia	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Pescara - Frosinone	1:2 ✺
08.12.25	Frosinone - Juve Stabia	3:0 ✺
29.11.25	Reggiana - Frosinone	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Bari - Frosinone	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
05.05.24	Empoli - Frosinone	0:0
06.11.23	Frosinone - Empoli	2:1
Italian Serie B
30.01.21	Empoli - Frosinone	3:1
26.09.20	Frosinone - Empoli	0:2
10.07.20	Empoli - Frosinone	2:0
30.11.19	Frosinone - Empoli	4:0
Italian Serie A
17.03.19	Empoli - Frosinone	2:1

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