Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 20

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Chiffi D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	New World Sport App, ZAP
Angola	15:00	Z Sport 1
Asia	—	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Austria	15:00	DAZN
Belgium	15:00	DAZN 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:00	Arena Sport 3, Moja TV
Brazil	11:00	Disney+
China	22:00	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	15:00	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	15:00	Sport 2
Denmark	15:00	TV2 Play
Finland	16:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
Georgia	18:00	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	15:00	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	16:00	COSMOTE Sport 4
Hong Kong	22:00	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	15:00	Net4+
India	19:30	GXR World
Indonesia	21:00	Vidio
Italy	15:00	215 DAZN Zona, DAZN 2, DAZN Italia
Japan	23:00	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	15:00	ART Sport 3
New Zealand	03:00	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	15:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:00	VG+
Romania	16:00	Prima Sport PPV 1
Saudi Arabia	17:00	STC TV
Slovenia	15:00	Arena Sport 2
Spain	15:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Play
Switzerland	15:00	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	17:00	S Sport+
Ukraine	16:00	MEGOGO Futbol 4
Usa	09:00	CBS, Paramount+
Vietnam	21:00	ON Plus
International	14:00	Disney+, Onefootball


	Empoli		Lecce

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	4.5	Watch
	1.93	3.1	4.5
	2.02	3.05	4.25
	2.01	3.13	4.57	Watch
	1.95	3	4.4
	2.06	3.23	4.55	Watch
	2.05	3.1	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.11)	3.1 ↓ (3.18)	4.44 ↑ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
47.8%

Draw
30.7%

Lecce
21.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.1%

30%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

26.6%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Empoli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lecce could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.8%	33.3%	11.9%

Empoli - Lecce Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 23 - 57.5%). Lecce will win (votes: 5 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Empoli: 42.2% – 72.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Seghetti J. (G) 2. Goglichidze S. 34. Ismajli A. 21. Viti M. 11. Gyasi E. 5. Grassi A. (C) 93. Maleh Y. 3. Pezzella G. 99. Esposito Se. 13. Cacace L. 29. Colombo L.	30. Falcone W. (G) 12. Guilbert F. 6. Baschirotto F. (C) 19. Jean G. 13. Dorgu P. 14. Helgason T. J. 29. Coulibaly L. 75. Pierret B. 50. Pierotti S. 9. Krstovic N. 7. Tete Morente
Substitutes
36. Bacci J. 22. De Sciglio M. 39. Falcusan D. 10. Fazzini J. 6. Henderson L. 90. Konate I. 1. Perisan S. (G) 7. Sambia J. 31. Tosto L. 23. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G) 27. Zurkowski S.	21. Bonifazi K. 98. Borbei A. (G) 23. Burnete R. 34. Daka D. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 77. Kaba M. 37. Karlsson J. 36. Marchwinski F. 27. McJannet E. 26. Pehlivanov C. 20. Ramadani Y. 3. Rebic A. 32. Samooja J. (G)
Coaches
D'Aversa R.	Giampaolo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Tete Morente ⚽, Pierotti S. (A),
11', 0 - 2, Krstovic N. ⚽, Tete Morente (A),
21', Ismajli A. ↓, De Sciglio M. ↑,
37', Tete Morente 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 1 - 2, Cacace L. ⚽, Gyasi E. (A),
52', Helgason T. J. ↓, Kaba M. ↑,
58', Pierret B. 🟨,
68', Pierotti S. ↓, Bonifazi K. ↑,
75', Maleh Y. ↓, Fazzini J. ↑,
80', Pezzella G. ↓, Sambia J. ↑,
80', Grassi A. ↓, Henderson L. ↑,
82', Pierret B. ↓, Ramadani Y. ↑,
82', Tete Morente ↓, Karlsson J. ↑,
83', Krstovic N. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 3, Krstovic N. ⚽, Dorgu P. (A),

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Empoli won 1.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

In this match Empoli is a favorite.

There will not play in Empoli: Ebuehi T. (Knee Injury) Haas N. (Knee Injury) Pellegri P. (Knee Injury) Pezzella G. (Calf Injury) Sazonov S. (Knee Injury) Solbakken O. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Lecce: Banda L. (Broken ankle) Gallo A. (Injury) Gaspar K. (Knee Injury) Gonzalez J. (Chest Injury) Pelmard A. (Coach's decision) Rafia H. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Empoli: Brancolini F. (Injury) Fazzini J. (Injury) Zurkowski S. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Berisha M. (Thigh Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Empoli won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:7 (average 1.1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Empoli won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie A
04.01.25	Venezia - Empoli	1:1 ✺
28.12.24	Empoli - Genoa	1:2 ✺
22.12.24	Atalanta - Empoli	3:2 ✺
13.12.24	Empoli - Torino	0:1 ✺
08.12.24	Verona - Empoli	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TLLLW
- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
05.01.25	Lecce - Genoa	0:0 ✺
30.12.24	Como - Lecce	2:0 ✺
21.12.24	Lecce - Lazio	1:2 ✺
15.12.24	Lecce - Monza	2:1 ✺
07.12.24	Roma - Lecce	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
08.11.24	Lecce - Empoli	1:1
13.04.24	Lecce - Empoli	1:0
11.12.23	Empoli - Lecce	1:1
03.04.23	Empoli - Lecce	1:0
28.08.22	Lecce - Empoli	1:1
Italian Serie B
10.05.21	Empoli - Lecce	2:1
24.01.21	Lecce - Empoli	2:2

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