Match Info

Serie B - Round 6

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Mucera G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV
World	Onefootball


	Empoli		Monza

	1	X	2
	3.2	3	2.35	Watch
	3.1	2.92	2.42	Watch
	3.4	2.96	2.5
	7.27	1.30	6.15	Watch
	3.2	2.96	2.49	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (2.67)	2.72 ↓ (3.15)	3.09 ↑ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
27.6%

Draw
38.5%

Monza
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

29.4%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

29.4%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Empoli's form might have worsened.

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Empoli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.4%	65.2%	4.3%

Empoli - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 7 - 31.8%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 68.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Empoli (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 8 - 72.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Monza (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Empoli (3.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Empoli (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Empoli (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Empoli (votes: 6 - 40%). Monza (votes: 1 - 6.7%). Tie (votes: 8 - 53.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Fulignati A. (G) 20. Lovato M. 34. Guarino G. 5. Obaretin N. 7. Elia S. 8. Belardinelli L. (C) 18. Ghion A. 15. Ceesay J. 27. Moruzzi B. 70. Saporiti E. 11. Shpendi S.	20. Thiam D. (G) 19. Birindelli S. 18. Zeroli K. 15. Delli Carri F. 2. Brorsson A. 26. Ciurria P. (C) 21. Colombo L. 44. Carboni A. 23. Galazzi N. 10. Caprari G. 25. Alvarez A.
Substitutes
99. Bianchi F. 79. Carboni F. 2. Curto M. 24. Ebuehi T. 32. Haas N. 10. Ilie R. 28. Indragoli G. 9. Pellegri P. 1. Perisan S. (G) 77. Popov B. 29. Tosto L. 14. Yepes G.	7. Azzi P. 24. Bakoune A. 17. Balde K. 27. Capolupo S. 28. Colpani A. 4. Izzo A. 3. Lucchesi L. 9. Maric M. 14. Obiang P. 37. Petagna A. 1. Pizzignacco S. (G) 13. Ravanelli L.
Coaches
Pagliuca G.	Bianco P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Colombo L. 🟨,
28', Caprari G. ↓, Balde K. ↑,
28', Ciurria P. ↓, Azzi P. ↑,
33', Pagliuca G. 🟥,
33', Bianco P. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Colombo L. ↓, Obiang P. ↑,
49', 0 - 1, Carboni A. ⚽, Balde K. (A),
57', Belardinelli L. 🟨,
62', Elia S. 🟨,
65', Saporiti E. ↓, Yepes G. ↑,
65', Moruzzi B. ↓, Ilie R. ↑,
66', Belardinelli L. ↓, Popov B. ↑,
66', Obiang P. 🟨,
70', Galazzi N. ↓, Colpani A. ↑,
77', Shpendi S. ↓, Pellegri P. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Guarino G. ⚽, Ilie R. (A),
80', Elia S. ↓, Carboni F. ↑,
87', Carboni A. ↓, Lucchesi L. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 15 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 2.

Empoli has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Monza has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Empoli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Empoli: Degli Innocenti D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Konate I. (International duty)

There will not play in Monza: Antov V. (Knee Injury) Forson O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Empoli: Nasti M. (Inactive) Pellegri P. (Knee Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Empoli won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie B
28.09.25	Empoli - Carrarese	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
25.09.25	Genoa - Empoli	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie B
21.09.25	Pescara - Empoli	4:0 ✺
14.09.25	Empoli - Spezia	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Reggiana - Empoli	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLTL
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie B
27.09.25	Monza - Padova	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Monza - Sampdoria	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Avellino - Monza	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Bari - Monza	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Monza - Mantova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
18.05.25	Monza - Empoli	1:3
17.08.24	Empoli - Monza	0:0
21.01.24	Empoli - Monza	3:0
26.08.23	Monza - Empoli	2:0
04.03.23	Monza - Empoli	2:1
15.10.22	Empoli - Monza	1:0
Italian Serie B
06.02.21	Monza - Empoli	1:1

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