Match Info

3. Liga - Round 33

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Uhrig B. H. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Croatia	16:30	SportKlub 11
Germany	16:30	Magenta Sport
Usa	10:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
International	14:30	Onefootball


	Erzgebirge Aue		Verl

	1	X	2
	4	3.75	1.67	Watch
	3.9	3.95	1.75	Watch
	4.04	4.45	1.74
	3.86	4.5	1.7	Watch
	3.8	3.6	1.73
	4	4	1.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.93 ↑ (3.67)	4.04 ↑ (4)	1.71 ↓ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
23.4%

Draw
22.8%

Verl
53.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.2%

23%

51.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.8%

22.6%

52.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Verl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Verl than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Erzgebirge Aue - Verl Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mannel M. (G) 23. Barylla A. 16. Malone R. 25. Zobel T. 30. Seiffert M. 7. Weinhauer E. 11. Uhlmann E. 20. Fabisch J. 19. Guttau J. 15. Bar M. 9. Bornschein R.	1. Schulze P. (G) 20. Mhamdi O. 5. Ens M. 34. Otto F. 19. Kijewski N. 6. Eze J. 8. Waidner D. 28. Otto Y. 10. Taz B. 18. Wessig F. 11. Worner M.
Substitutes
8. Clausen M. 24. Ehlers J. 10. Gunther-Schmidt J. 27. Hetzsch F. 22. Lord L. (G) 13. Majetschak E. 45. Ocansey V. A. F. 39. Schmid M. 5. Simnica L.	9. Arweiler J. 35. Foti A. 13. Japaur A. 21. Knost T. 17. Mesanovic A. 32. Pekruhl F. (G) 7. Stark J. 24. Stocker M.
Coaches
Shubitidze K.	Strobl T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Taz B. ⚽, Worner M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Barylla A. 🟨,
51', Otto Y. ↓, Stark J. ↑,
63', Wessig F. ↓, Arweiler J. ↑,
64', 1 - 1, Weinhauer E. ⚽,
65', Guttau J. ↓, Majetschak E. ↑,
65', Uhlmann E. ↓, Simnica L. ↑,
65', Barylla A. ↓, Ehlers J. ↑,
77', Worner M. ↓, Japaur A. ↑,
77', Eze J. ↓, Mesanovic A. ↑,
81', Stark J. 🟨,
83', Weinhauer E. ↓, Schmid M. ↑,
83', Bar M. ↓, Gunther-Schmidt J. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aue won 0.

Aue has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Verl's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aue may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Verl is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Verl will win today's game, with odds of 1.78.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Aue won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:22. (average 1.4:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aue won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1.7:3.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Verl	11	3	3	5	16:22	-6	12

Outrights of German 3 Bundesliga for now

Verl: 0.51%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
07.04.26	Jahn Regensburg - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Hoffenheim II	3:5 ✺
21.03.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Rot-Weiß Essen - Erzgebirge Aue	4:2 ✺
07.03.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Alemannia Aachen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- SC Verl
German 3 Bundesliga
08.04.26	Verl - Hansa Rostock	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Ulm 1846 - Verl	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Verl - Saarbrücken	3:0 ✺
15.03.26	Verl - Schweinfurt	4:0 ✺
08.03.26	Ingolstadt - Verl	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
08.11.25	Verl - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1
26.04.25	Verl - Erzgebirge Aue	5:1
30.11.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Verl	2:5
13.04.24	Verl - Erzgebirge Aue	3:1
03.11.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Verl	1:2
15.04.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Verl	2:3
23.10.22	Verl - Erzgebirge Aue	3:2

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