Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 30

Date: 1 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Erzgebirgsstadion (Aue)

Referee: Exner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Erzgebirge Aue		Oldenburg

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	3.6
	1.9	3.6	3.75
	1.85	3.55	3.8
	1.9	3.78	4.1
	1.88	3.3	3.6
	1.86	3.72	3.72	Watch
	1.88	3.45	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.78)	3.56 ↓ (3.78)	3.74 ↓ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
49.4%

Draw
25.9%

Oldenburg
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

25.3%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

24.5%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Oldenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Erzgebirge Aue, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oldenburg than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	10%	30%

Erzgebirge Aue - Oldenburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Oldenburg will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aue: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Aue is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Aue won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
25.03.23	Meppen - Erzgebirge Aue	3:2 ✺
18.03.23	Erzgebirge Aue - 1860 München	1:3 ✺
14.03.23	Zwickau - Erzgebirge Aue	0:2 ✺
11.03.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Rot-Weiß Essen	2:1 ✺
04.03.23	Dynamo Dresden - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWWL
- VfB Oldenburg
German 3 Bundesliga
25.03.23	Oldenburg - Viktoria Köln	1:3 ✺
18.03.23	Bayreuth - Oldenburg	1:2 ✺
15.03.23	Oldenburg - Borussia Dortmund II	2:1 ✺
11.03.23	Osnabrück - Oldenburg	2:0 ✺
05.03.23	Oldenburg - Duisburg	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
05.01.23	Erzgebirge Aue - Oldenburg	5:1
German 3 Bundesliga
08.10.22	Oldenburg - Erzgebirge Aue	1:3

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