Match Info

GERMANY: 3. Liga - Round 22

Date: 1 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion (Dresden)

Referee: Eckermann M. P. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 7
Croatia	SportKlub 7
Germany	Magenta Sport, MDR Fernsehen, tv.dfb.de
Montenegro	Sportklub 7
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, Sportklub 7
Serbia	SportKlub 7
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	ESPN 3, ESPN App
World	Onefootball


	Dynamo Dresden		Erzgebirge Aue

	1	X	2
	1.67	4	4.1
	1.71	4	4.2
	1.65	4.2	4.5	Watch
	1.68	4.26	4.67
	1.67	4.1	4.5	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4
	1.7	4.09	4.19	Watch
	1.65	4.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.53)	4.07 ↓ (4.32)	4.33 ↓ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dynamo Dresden
55.6%

Draw
22.9%

Erzgebirge Aue
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

21.5%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

21.3%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dynamo Dresden has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Erzgebirge Aue has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dynamo Dresden than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dynamo Dresden, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Dynamo Dresden - Erzgebirge Aue Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Dynamo Dresden will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Aue will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dynamo Dresden: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schreiber T. (G) 15. Kammerknecht C. 20. Hoti A. 39. Kubatta D. 16. Heise P. 17. Casar A. 27. Hauptmann N. (C) 24. Menzel T. 10. Lemmer J. 33. Daferner C. 11. Kother D.	1. Mannel M. (C) 23. Barylla A. 13. Majetschak E. 4. Vukancic N. 29. Rosenlocher L. 10. Pepic M. 17. Fallmann P. 14. Tashchy B. 20. Fabisch J. 11. Sijaric O. 15. Bar M.
Substitutes
22. Baur M. 29. Boeder L. 23. Bunning L. 30. Kutschke S. 26. Marx J. H. 21. Meissner R. 37. Mesenholer D. (G) 28. Risch S. 32. Sterner J.	9. Bornschein R. 21. Burghardt M. 19. Hoffmann T. 26. Jakob K. 18. Kallenbach W. 25. Kips T. (G) 30. Loune A. 34. Stefaniak M.
Coaches
Stamm T.	Hartel J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Daferner C. ⚽, Kother D. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Sijaric O. ⚽, Majetschak E. (A),
24', Daferner C. 🟨,
24', Barylla A. 🟨,
31', Tashchy B. 🟨,
32', Daferner C. (Pen),
45+1', Casar A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Hoti A. ↓, Boeder L. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Kother D. ⚽, Lemmer J. (A),
67', Fallmann P. ↓, Stefaniak M. ↑,
74', Daferner C. ↓, Kutschke S. ↑,
74', Kother D. ↓, Baur M. ↑,
74', Kammerknecht C. ↓, Sterner J. ↑,
78', Tashchy B. ↓, Bornschein R. ↑,
78', Pepic M. ↓, Loune A. ↑,
78', Sijaric O. ↓, Schmid M. ↑,
82', Barylla A. ↓, Burghardt M. ↑,
83', Fabisch J. 🟨,
87', Menzel T. ↓, Bunning L. ↑,
90', Heise P. 🟨,
90+3', Bar M. 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ 2. Bundesliga and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dynamo Dresden won 3.

Dynamo Dresden is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Aue is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aue could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Dynamo Dresden is a favorite.

There will not play in Dynamo Dresden: Bogdanov D. (Injury) Oehmichen J. (Injury) Sapina V. (Hamstring Injury) Sterner J. (Injury)

There will not play in Aue: Hoffmann T. (Illness) Kallenbach W. (Illness) Loune A. (Illness) Nkansah S. (Illness) Ozkan C. (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Dynamo Dresden won 9 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 24:24 (average 1.2:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Dynamo Dresden won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11:11 (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dynamo Dresden
German 3 Bundesliga
25.01.25	Energie Cottbus - Dynamo Dresden	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	Dynamo Dresden - Viktoria Köln	2:3 ✺
21.12.24	Unterhaching - Dynamo Dresden	0:3 ✺
13.12.24	Dynamo Dresden - Waldhof Mannheim	2:1 ✺
08.12.24	Dynamo Dresden - Arminia Bielefeld	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TLWWW
- Erzgebirge Aue
German 3 Bundesliga
25.01.25	Erzgebirge Aue - Osnabrück	0:0 ✺
17.01.25	Hannover II - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1 ✺
21.12.24	Erzgebirge Aue - 1860 München	3:1 ✺
14.12.24	Sandhausen - Erzgebirge Aue	4:6 ✺
07.12.24	Ingolstadt - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
23.08.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Dynamo Dresden	2:0
18.02.24	Erzgebirge Aue - Dynamo Dresden	2:1
24.09.23	Dynamo Dresden - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1
04.03.23	Dynamo Dresden - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
28.08.22	Erzgebirge Aue - Dynamo Dresden	0:1
German 2 Bundesliga
15.05.22	Dynamo Dresden - Erzgebirge Aue	0:1
12.12.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Dynamo Dresden	0:1

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