Match Info

Date: 4 January 2021, Monday


	Estoril Praia		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.5	5.75
	1.6	3.4	5.5
	1.6	3.3	5.6
	1.68	3.45	5.2
	1.72	3.65	5.54
	1.7	3.4	5.5
	1.66	3.2	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.79)	3.41 ↑ (3.08)	5.61 ↑ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
56.1%

Draw
27.3%

Penafiel
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

30.2%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30%

17.5%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-26.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estoril Praia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+14.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Penafiel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	19.6%	13.7%

Estoril Praia - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 51 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 34 - 66.7%). Penafiel will win (votes: 7 - 13.7%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 19.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 53.8% – 79.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

The great teams are gonna meet at this game. The most expected match between two teams from the very top of the group (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion to Primeira Liga and 4).

Now both teams are in good shape.

Penafiel could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Estoril is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Estoril won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Estoril won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Portuguese Liga 2
30.12.20	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	0:2 ✺
21.12.20	Estoril Praia - Porto B	1:1 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
17.12.20	Braga - Estoril Praia	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
12.12.20	Estoril Praia - Boavista	2:1 ✺
09.12.20	Estoril Praia - Lusitano GC	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLWW
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
27.12.20	Penafiel - Benfica B	2:0 ✺
19.12.20	Cova De Piedade - Penafiel	2:3 ✺
04.12.20	Penafiel - Leixões	1:0 ✺
28.11.20	Académico de Viseu - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.20	Penafiel - Marítimo	2:3 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
28.12.19	Penafiel - Estoril Praia	1:0
28.04.19	Penafiel - Estoril Praia	4:2
02.01.19	Estoril Praia - Penafiel	0:1
Taça de Portugal
16.12.15	Estoril Praia - Penafiel	1:0
Liga Portugal
21.03.15	Estoril Praia - Penafiel	3:3
01.11.14	Penafiel - Estoril Praia	1:2
Club Friendly
26.07.14	Estoril Praia - Penafiel	0:0

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