Match Info

Primera B - Round 41

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Excursionistas Stadium (Buenos Aires) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	15:00	LPF Play


	Excursionistas		Sportivo Italiano

	1	X	2
	1.22	5.25	11.00
	1.27	4.60	8.00
	1.25	5.69	13.43
	1.29	4.53	10	Watch
	1.22	4.95	12.00
	1.30	5.44	8.71
	1.22	4.90	12.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.25 ↓ (1.92)	5.05 ↑ (3.1)	10.73 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Excursionistas
73.3%

Draw
18.2%

Sportivo Italiano
8.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.6%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

29.4%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Excursionistas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+27.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Excursionistas's performance.

Sportivo Italiano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sportivo Italiano might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excursionistas than the current prediction. (-25.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Excursionistas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Italiano than the current prediction. (+14.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sportivo Italiano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Excursionistas - Sportivo Italiano Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Excursionistas will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Sportivo Italiano will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Excursionistas (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Excursionistas (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Excursionistas (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez N. (G) 3. Arango M. 8. Avalos A. 11. Blanco M. 7. Damiolini N. 10. Espeche A. 4. Fernandez M. 2. Ledesma D. 6. Pedrosa G. 9. Tellas G. 5. Zoratti G.	1. Yordan G. (G) 4. Bifiguer C. 9. Caceres P. 8. Centurion F. 3. Daivez A. 10. Gimenez K. 7. Laborda L. 6. Merzario E. 11. Molina F. 2. Ordonez C. 5. Rivero J.
Substitutes
15. Alaniz M. 20. Arbello I. 12. Blengio M. (G) 17. Cardozo M. 19. Gimenez W. 16. Lopez M. 14. Paulides A. 13. Rodriguez G. 18. Scaramuzzi E.	12. Alastra A. (G) 19. De Cuadro J. 13. Di Massimo F. 14. Durante P. 17. Fortino R. 16. Guerra A. 15. Guzman L. 20. Guzman M. 18. Hirigoyen T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Ledesma D. ⚽,
23', Daivez A. 🟨,
26', Ordonez C. 🟨,
30', Merzario E. 🟨,
31', 2 - 0, Arango M. ⚽,
32', (Penalty Awarded),
39', 3 - 0, Tellas G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
77', 4 - 0, Lopez M. ⚽,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Primera Nacional and 3rd in the Promotion - Primera B Promotion - Playoffs).

Sportivo Italiano is Qualified for Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs ).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Excursionistas won 3.

Both teams are currently displaying solid and consistent form.

Sportivo Italiano may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Excursionistas holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Excursionistas has recorded 6 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:17 (averaging 1.1:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Excursionistas against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses, with 12:6 goals (averaging 1.5:0.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Excursionistas ✔	41	24	9	8	68:31	37	81
4	Sportivo Italiano ✔	41	19	12	10	47:33	14	69

Last Results with these Odds

Excursionistas - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 46.13%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Excursionistas
Argentinian Primera B
17.10.26	San Martín de Burzaco - Excursionistas	1:1 ✺
09.10.26	Excursionistas - Villa San Carlos	4:0 ✺
03.10.26	Liniers - Excursionistas	1:0 ✺
25.09.26	Excursionistas - Real Pilar	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	UAI Urquiza - Excursionistas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWLWW
- Sportivo Italiano
Argentinian Primera B
17.10.26	Sportivo Italiano - Arsenal Sarandí	0:0 ✺
11.10.26	Argentino de Merlo - Sportivo Italiano	1:2 ✺
04.10.26	Sportivo Italiano - Talleres de Remedios de Escalada	2:0 ✺
26.09.26	Deportivo Laferrere - Sportivo Italiano	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Sportivo Italiano - Brown de Adrogué	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
13.06.26	Sportivo Italiano - Excursionistas	0:1
02.08.25	Sportivo Italiano - Excursionistas	2:1
15.03.25	Excursionistas - Sportivo Italiano	2:0
10.07.24	Excursionistas - Sportivo Italiano	1:1
20.02.24	Sportivo Italiano - Excursionistas	0:3
Argentinian Primera C
04.07.23	Excursionistas - Sportivo Italiano	1:1
26.02.23	Sportivo Italiano - Excursionistas	0:0

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