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Current Win Probability
San Martín de Burzaco 17.4%
Draw 24.2%
Excursionistas 58.4%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
25.6%
27.6%
46.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
24.5%
26.4%
49.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
San Martín de Burzaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Martín de Burzaco's form might have worsened.
Excursionistas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Excursionistas's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Martín de Burzaco than the current prediction. (+7.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Martín de Burzaco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excursionistas than the current prediction. (-9.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Excursionistas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
San Martín de Burzaco - Excursionistas Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Gagliardo M. (G) 9. Chavez B. 8. Denis K. 11. Gauna N. A. 5. Gonzalez R. 6. Lazarev R. 4. Lezcano L. 2. Orellana D. 3. Siliman A. 10. Velazquez R. 7. Zagert E.
1. Rodriguez N. (G) 3. Arango M. 8. Avalos A. 11. Blanco M. 7. Damiolini N. 10. Espeche A. 4. Fernandez M. 2. Ledesma D. 6. Pedrosa G. 9. Tellas G. 5. Zoratti G.
Substitutes
14. Barrera N. 18. Costa L. 20. Cuenca C. 16. Escudero M. 15. Geneiro L. 12. Marchesi N. (G) 17. Segura T. 13. Tobon J. 19. Treppo E.
18. Alaniz M. 12. Blengio M. (G) 17. Cardozo M. 15. Chambi L. 19. Gimenez W. 16. Lopez M. 14. Paulides A. 20. Polvera M. 13. Rodriguez G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Lazarev R. ⚽,
36', Blanco M. 🟨,
45+7', Pedrosa G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Zagert E. 🟨,
54', Blanco M. ↓, Gimenez W. ↑,
54', Tellas G. ↓, Polvera M. ↑,
60', 1 - 1, Gimenez W. ⚽,
61', Damiolini N. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
61', Zoratti G. ↓, Cardozo M. ↑,
62', Lezcano L. ↓, Geneiro L. ↑,
64', Ledesma D. 🟨,
88', Avalos A. ↓, Paulides A. ↑,
90', Denis K. ↓, Barrera N. ↑,
90', Zagert E. ↓, Costa L. ↑,
Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 11th and 1st in the Promotion - Primera Nacional).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SM de Burzaco won 0.
In recent outings, SM de Burzaco has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Excursionistas is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
SM de Burzaco may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Excursionistas is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, SM de Burzaco has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:36 (averaging 1.3:2 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for SM de Burzaco against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with 15:15 goals (averaging 1.7:1.7 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
1
Excursionistas ✔
41
24
9
8
68:31
37
81
11
San Martin Burzaco
41
12
15
14
41:46
-5
51
Last Results with these Odds
San Martín de Burzaco - the odds 3.45 are the expected chance of winning is 25.62%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.
Excursionistas - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 46.76%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.
Argentina
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Gagliardo M. (G) 
Tobon J. 
Gimenez W. 
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