Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 22

Date: 26 December 2024, Thursday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Reeves T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Exeter City		Bristol Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.7	4.5
	1.77	3.5	4.4
	1.78	3.6	4.5
	1.81	3.8	4.72
	1.76	3.63	4.54	Watch
	1.8	3.6	4.6
	1.77	3.75	4.55	Watch
	1.78	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.72)	3.65 ↑ (3.58)	4.54 ↓ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
53.3%

Draw
25.9%

Bristol Rovers
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

25.8%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

25.5%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Bristol Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol Rovers than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	41.7%	0%

Exeter City - Bristol Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Exeter: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Whitworth J. (G) 2. McMillan J. 5. Fitzwater J. 8. Francis E. 28. McDonald K. 6. Woods R. 11. Alli M. 17. Watts C. 7. Mitchell D. 14. Niskanen I. 27. Magennis J. (C)	1. Griffiths J. (G) 2. Senior J. 5. Wilson J. (C) 17. Taylor C. 6. Mola C. 29. Lindsay J. 22. Conteh K. 28. Forde S. 11. Thomas L. 19. Hutchinson I. 9. Omochere P.
Substitutes
31. Bird J. 19. Cox S. 20. Doyle K. 18. Harper V. 37. MacDonald S. (G) 3. Purrington B. 47. Richards J.	14. Garrett J. 18. Martin C. 23. McCormick L. 4. Moore T. 24. O'Donkor G. 7. Sinclair S. 10. Sotiriou R.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Horseman D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Niskanen I. 🟨,
30', Conteh K. 🟨,
44', McDonald K. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
62', 0 - 1, Omochere P. ⚽,
67', Mitchell D. ↓, Doyle K. ↑,
67', McDonald K. ↓, Richards A. ↑,
68', Lindsay J. 🟨,
72', 1 - 1, Fitzwater J. ⚽, Francis E. (A),
74', Senior J. ↓, Sinclair S. ↑,
74', Thomas L. ↓, Moore T. ↑,
76', Watts C. ↓, Harper V. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Alli M. ⚽, Richards A. (A),
81', Lindsay J. ↓, O'Donkor G. ↑,
81', Omochere P. ↓, McCormick L. ↑,
81', Forde S. ↓, Martin C. ↑,
90+2', Woods R. ↓, Purrington B. ↑,
90+6', 3 - 1, Richards A. ⚽,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 13 and 19).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Exeter won 3.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

In this match Exeter is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Exeter won 8 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 32:24 (average 2:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17:11 (average 2.1:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Bristol Rovers - the odds 4.55 are the expected chance of winning is 20.32%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
21.12.24	Burton Albion - Exeter City	1:2 ✺
14.12.24	Exeter City - Barnsley	1:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.12.24	Exeter City - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
English League One
07.12.24	Stockport County - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
03.12.24	Exeter City - Wycombe Wanderers	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLLLT
- Bristol Rovers
English League One
21.12.24	Bristol Rovers - Wrexham	1:1 ✺
14.12.24	Birmingham City - Bristol Rovers	2:0 ✺
03.12.24	Leyton Orient - Bristol Rovers	3:0 ✺
English FA Cup
30.11.24	Barnsley - Bristol Rovers	0:1 penalties ✺
English League One
26.11.24	Bristol Rovers - Blackpool	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
29.10.24	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	2:3
English League One
03.02.24	Exeter City - Bristol Rovers	0:1
23.01.24	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	0:1
29.12.22	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	3:4
01.10.22	Exeter City - Bristol Rovers	2:2
English League Two
26.02.22	Bristol Rovers - Exeter City	1:1
English EFL Trophy
10.11.21	Exeter City - Bristol Rovers	5:3

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