Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL Trophy - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 December 2024, Tuesday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Mulhall S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Exeter City		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	4.75	4	1.57	Watch
	4.8	3.8	1.55
	5	4	1.6
	4.85	4.05	1.63
	5	3.88	1.65	Watch
	4.8	3.8	1.6
	4.94	3.92	1.6	Watch
	5	4	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.89 ↑ (4.88)	3.93 ↓ (4.02)	1.6 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
18.9%

Draw
23.5%

Birmingham City
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

22.9%

58.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.5%

22.5%

59.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Exeter City have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Birmingham City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Exeter City - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: Birmingham City will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. MacDonald S. (G) 26. Sweeney P. (C) 5. Fitzwater J. 3. Purrington B. 18. Harper V. 47. Richards J. 28. McDonald K. 2. McMillan J. 10. Aitchison J. 31. Bird J. 11. Alli M.	45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G) 2. Laird E. 5. Sanderson D. 25. Davies B. 3. Buchanan L. 19. Gardner-Hickman T. 12. Leonard M. 14. Anderson K. 26. Harris L. 33. Yokoyama A. 10. Jutkiewicz L. (C)
Substitutes
12. Cole R. 19. Cox S. 20. Doyle K. 27. Magennis J. 7. Mitchell D. 14. Niskanen I. 1. Whitworth J. (G)	21. Allsop R. (G) 6. Bielik K. 24. Iwata T. 4. Klarer C. 9. May A. 13. Paik Seung-Ho 28. Stansfield J.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Harris L. ⚽, Anderson K. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Sweeney P. ⚽,
40', Alli M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Aitchison J. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
58', Buchanan L. 🟨,
60', Buchanan L. ↓, Paik Seung-Ho ↑,
60', Jutkiewicz L. ↓, May A. ↑,
61', Bird J. ↓, Magennis J. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Anderson K. ⚽, Yokoyama A. (A),
79', McDonald K. ↓, Mitchell D. ↑,
79', Harper V. ↓, Niskanen I. ↑,
80', Laird E. ↓, Bielik K. ↑,
83', Richards J. ↓, Doyle K. ↑,
84', Cole R. 🟨,
85', Doyle K. 🟨,
90', Yokoyama A. 🟨,
90+5', Peacock-Farrell B. 🟨,

Preview

Exeter is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Birmingham is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Birmingham have a series of guest games.

In this match Birmingham is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Exeter won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
07.12.24	Stockport County - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
03.12.24	Exeter City - Wycombe Wanderers	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
30.11.24	Exeter City - Chesterfield	2:0 ✺
English League One
26.11.24	Exeter City - Birmingham City	0:2 ✺
23.11.24	Wrexham - Exeter City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTWLL
- Birmingham City
English League One
07.12.24	Barnsley - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
04.12.24	Birmingham City - Stockport County	2:0 ✺
English FA Cup
01.12.24	Blackpool - Birmingham City	1:2 ✺
English League One
26.11.24	Exeter City - Birmingham City	0:2 ✺
23.11.24	Shrewsbury Town - Birmingham City	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
26.11.24	Exeter City - Birmingham City	0:2

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