Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 4

Date: 19 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)


	Portsmouth		Cheltenham Town

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	8.5
	1.43	4.33	7.25
	1.48	4.4	6.75
	1.43	4.58	8.15
	1.4	3.9	6.5
	1.43	4.5	7.4	Watch
	1.41	4.4	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.56)	4.37 ↑ (4.08)	7.42 ↑ (5.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
65.9%

Draw
21.5%

Cheltenham Town
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.1%

23%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

22.2%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Portsmouth's performance.

Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	13.3%	6.7%

Portsmouth - Cheltenham Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Portsmouth will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Norris W. (G) 17. Rafferty J. 5. Poole R. 18. Shaughnessy C. 6. Ogilvie C. 11. Whyte G. 7. Pack M. (C) 8. Robertson A. 16. Morrell J. 10. Scully A. 9. Bishop C.	1. Southwood L. (G) 2. Long S. (C) 33. Davies C. 6. Freestone L. 22. Smith L. 8. Sercombe L. 14. Thompson C. 15. Ferry W. 11. Street R. 9. Goodwin W. 10. Keena A.
Substitutes
25. Kamara A. 32. Lane P. 20. Raggett S. 15. Saydee C. 31. Schofield R. (G) 21. Sparkes J. 2. Swanson Z.	16. Adshead D. 4. Bradbury T. 18. Chapman E. 99. D'Auria-Henry L. 20. Harris M. (G) 29. O'Donnell L. 3. Williams B.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Elliott W.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 3.

Portsmouth is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cheltenham has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Portsmouth is absolute favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 22-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Portsmouth won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League One
15.08.23	Portsmouth - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
12.08.23	Leyton Orient - Portsmouth	0:4 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.23	Forest Green Rovers - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
English League One
05.08.23	Portsmouth - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Portsmouth - Bristol City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWTL
- Cheltenham Town
English League One
15.08.23	Reading - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
12.08.23	Cheltenham Town - Bolton Wanderers	0:3 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.23	Cheltenham Town - Birmingham City	0:2 ✺
English League One
05.08.23	Shrewsbury Town - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.23	Cheltenham Town - Bristol City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
25.02.23	Portsmouth - Cheltenham Town	4:0
13.08.22	Cheltenham Town - Portsmouth	0:2
09.04.22	Cheltenham Town - Portsmouth	1:0
02.11.21	Portsmouth - Cheltenham Town	1:1
English EFL Trophy
08.12.20	Cheltenham Town - Portsmouth	0:3
English League Two
06.05.17	Portsmouth - Cheltenham Town	6:1
19.11.16	Cheltenham Town - Portsmouth	1:1

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