Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 4

Date: 19 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Herczeg A. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.6
	2.6	3.2	2.6
	2.6	3.3	2.8
	2.83	3.3	2.65
	2.62	3	2.45
	2.73	3.22	2.63	Watch
	2.7	3.25	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↓ (2.71)	3.22 ↑ (3.21)	2.61 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
35%

Draw
29.1%

Exeter City
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

29.2%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

29%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	10%	50%

Carlisle United - Exeter City Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Exeter will win (votes: 5 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Exeter: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Holy T. (G) 2. Back F. 6. Huntington P. (C) 5. Lavelle S. 3. Armer J. 22. Mellish J. 8. Guy C. 7. Gibson J. 4. Moxon O. 9. Edmondson R. 24. Maguire S.	1. Sinisalo V. (G) 26. Sweeney P. 4. Aimson W. (C) 5. Hartridge A. 21. Rankine D. 8. Trevitt R. 12. Cole R. 3. Jules Z. 29. Aitchison J. 7. Mitchell D. 10. Nombe S.
Substitutes
25. Andresson J. (G) 26. Barclay B. 11. Butterworth D. 15. Charters T. 14. Garner J. 10. McCalmont A. 27. Plange L.	41. Borges P. 6. Carroll T. 19. Cox S. 39. Diabate C. 31. Harper V. 23. Taylor K. 33. Woods G. (G)
Coaches
Simpson P.	Caldwell G.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 1.

Carlisle is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Exeter is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 21-30.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League One
15.08.23	Carlisle United - Wigan Athletic	1:1 ✺
12.08.23	Oxford United - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.23	Harrogate Town - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
English League One
05.08.23	Carlisle United - Fleetwood Town	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Carlisle United - Dundee United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLTL
- Exeter City
English League One
15.08.23	Portsmouth - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
12.08.23	Exeter City - Blackpool	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.23	Exeter City - Crawley Town	2:1 ✺
English League One
05.08.23	Wycombe Wanderers - Exeter City	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Exeter City - Coventry City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
09.04.22	Carlisle United - Exeter City	0:1
20.11.21	Exeter City - Carlisle United	2:1
30.01.21	Carlisle United - Exeter City	1:0
31.10.20	Exeter City - Carlisle United	1:0
07.09.19	Carlisle United - Exeter City	1:3
09.02.19	Carlisle United - Exeter City	1:1
04.08.18	Exeter City - Carlisle United	3:1

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