Match Info

Date: 3 September 2022, Saturday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Toner B. (Eng)


	Exeter City		Milton Keynes Dons

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.5	3.3
	2.15	3.25	3.4
	2.2	3.4	3.35
	2.15	3.3	3.25
	2.19	3.38	3.55
	2.15	3.25	3.4
	2.14	3.5	3.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.4)	3.37 ↑ (3.34)	3.4 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
43.9%

Draw
28.2%

Milton Keynes Dons
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

28.6%

31.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

30.7%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Milton Keynes Dons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	7.7%	38.5%

Exeter City - Milton Keynes Dons Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). MK Dons will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Exeter: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 9 and 13).

Exeter has the most likely position - 18 (6.93%), has project points - 55, has currently - 8, has a chance of relegated (19%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

MK Dons has the most likely position - 7 (7.55%), has project points - 70, has currently - 7, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (25%), has a small chance of promoted (12%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has small quality 22, small importance 23, small match rating 22. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Exeter is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

MK Dons is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Exeter will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Exeter won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Exeter City - Newport County	1:2 ✺
English League One
27.08.22	Accrington Stanley - Exeter City	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
23.08.22	Gillingham - Exeter City	1:0 penalties ✺
English League One
20.08.22	Exeter City - Cheltenham Town	0:1 ✺
16.08.22	Exeter City - Wycombe Wanderers	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTLLW
- Milton Keynes Dons
English EFL Trophy
30.08.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Cheltenham Town	1:2 ✺
English League One
27.08.22	Morecambe - Milton Keynes Dons	0:4 ✺
English League Cup
23.08.22	Watford - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2 ✺
English League One
20.08.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Accrington Stanley	1:1 ✺
16.08.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
02.02.19	Exeter City - Milton Keynes Dons	3:1
25.08.18	Milton Keynes Dons - Exeter City	1:0
English League One
10.03.12	Milton Keynes Dons - Exeter City	N/A

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