Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 21

Date: 10 December 2022, Saturday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Hair N. (Eng)


	Exeter City		Sheffield Wednesday

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	2
	3.8	3.3	1.95
	3.95	3.35	2
	3.7	3.3	1.96
	4.18	3.46	1.97
	3.9	3.3	1.95
	4.1	3.58	1.96	Watch
	3.8	3.4	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.93 ↑ (3.18)	3.39 ↑ (3.23)	1.97 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
24.1%

Draw
28%

Sheffield Wednesday
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

28.7%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

27.7%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Sheffield Wednesday has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sheffield Wednesday's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sheffield Wednesday than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.5%	7.7%	80.8%

Exeter City - Sheffield Wednesday Predictions

Users Predictions: Sheffield Wednesday will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs)).

Exeter has the most likely position - 16 (8.54%), has project points - 57, has currently - 26, has a small chance of relegated (9%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (4%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Sheff Wed has the most likely position - 1 (36.7%), has project points - 91, has currently - 41, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (34%), has a good chance of promoted (70%), has a chance of win league (37%).

This event has small quality 27, importance 37, match rating 32. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Exeter is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sheff Wed is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Exeter could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Sheff Wed will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Exeter won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
02.12.22	Morecambe - Exeter City	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Oxford United - Exeter City	4:1 ✺
English League One
19.11.22	Exeter City - Ipswich Town	0:2 ✺
12.11.22	Exeter City - Peterborough United	3:2 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Port Vale - Exeter City	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TLLWW
- Sheffield Wednesday
English League One
03.12.22	Derby County - Sheffield Wednesday	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Sheffield Wednesday - Mansfield Town	2:1 ✺
English League One
19.11.22	Sheffield Wednesday - Shrewsbury Town	1:0 ✺
12.11.22	Accrington Stanley - Sheffield Wednesday	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
09.11.22	Southampton - Sheffield Wednesday	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English FA Cup
09.01.21	Exeter City - Sheffield Wednesday	0:2
English League One
11.02.12	Exeter City - Sheffield Wednesday	N/A

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