Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	FBC Melgar		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.5
	2.2	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.23	3.09	3.6	Watch
	2.15	3	3.5	Watch
	2.19	3.14	3.5	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.48)	3.09 ↓ (3.16)	3.5 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
42.9%

Draw
30.4%

Vasco da Gama
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

29.5%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

29.3%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vasco da Gama might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with FBC Melgar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vasco da Gama could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	80%	0%

FBC Melgar - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Caceda C. (G) 33. Lazo M. 2. Barrios P. 6. Gonzalez L. 27. Cabanillas N. 15. Orzan H. 19. Rodriguez G. 10. Martinez T. 28. Arias A. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 17. Liza P.	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 4. Lemos M. 6. Lucas Piton 18. Paulinho Paula 25. Hugo Moura 15. Garre B. 11. Coutinho 17. Moreira N. 99. Vegetti P.
Substitutes
25. Barreda M. 20. Bernaola G. 7. Bordacahar C. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 11. Castro F. 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 13. Llontop M. 37. Pumacajia A. 4. Ramos E. 77. Saba E. 24. Tandazo W.	28. Adson 90. Alex Teixeira 45. Augusto L. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 8. Jair 29. Lucas Oliveira 10. Payet D. 77. Rayan 2. Rodriguez J. 5. Souza 3. Tche Tche 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Ribonetto W.	Fabio Carille

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Coutinho ⚽, Lucas Piton (A),
25', Martinez T. (Pen),
27', Paulinho Paula 🟨,
32', 0 - 2, Vegetti P. ⚽, Coutinho (A),
39', 1 - 2, Rodriguez G. ⚽, Orzan H. (A),
45+4', Liza P. 🟨,
45+4', Lemos M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Paulinho Paula ↓, Jair ↑,
46', Garre B. ↓, Rayan ↑,
52', 1 - 3, Vegetti P. ⚽,
62', Barrios P. ↓, Tandazo W. ↑,
62', Liza P. ↓, Bordacahar C. ↑,
62', Rodriguez G. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
69', Coutinho ↓, Tche Tche ↑,
71', Moreira N. ↓, Adson ↑,
73', Arias A. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
77', Lazo M. 🟨,
77', 🟨,
79', Lazo M. ↓, Ramos E. ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Castro F. ⚽, Cabrera Nakamura K. G. (A),
84', Vegetti P. ↓, Lucas Oliveira ↑,
90', 3 - 3, Cabrera Nakamura K. G. ⚽, Gonzalez L. (A),
90+6', Lucas Oliveira 🟨,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Vasco could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Melgar will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
27.03.25	Ayacucho - FBC Melgar	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.03.25	Cerro Porteño - FBC Melgar	4:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
08.03.25	FBC Melgar - Sporting Cristal	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.03.25	FBC Melgar - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
27.02.25	FBC Melgar - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWLW
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
30.03.25	Vasco da Gama - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.03.25	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.03.25	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.25	Vasco da Gama - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
23.02.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWLW

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