Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Referee: Ortega C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Peru	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1611, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1


	FBC Melgar		Lanús

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.9	2.7	Watch
	2.37	3.1	3.1
	2.85	2.85	2.7	Watch
	2.92	2.89	2.79
	2.87	2.92	2.78	Watch
	2.38	2.9	3.1	Watch
	2.84	2.94	2.78	Watch
	2.8	2.85	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.74 ↑ (2.5)	2.92 ↓ (3.02)	2.84 ↓ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
34.4%

Draw
32.3%

Lanús
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

31%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

FBC Melgar - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 9 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melgar: 71.4% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Melgar (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): FBC Melgar will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Melgar (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Cabezudo J. (G) 4. Ramos E. 6. Gonzalez L. 2. Barrios P. 13. Llontop M. 15. Orzan H. 24. Tandazo W. 7. Bordacahar C. 10. Martinez T. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 28. Arias A.	26. Losada N. (G) 21. Mendez A. 24. Izquierdoz C. 35. De Jesus R. 6. Marcich S. 23. Carrera R. 30. Cardozo A. 36. Segovia A. 10. Marcelino Moreno 11. Salvio E. 14. Canelo A.
Substitutes
25. Barreda M. 20. Bernaola G. 27. Cabanillas N. 5. Deneumostier A. 1. Farro R. (G) 33. Lazo M. 17. Liza P. 36. Nunez P. 37. Pumacajia A. 19. Rodriguez G. 77. Saba E. 22. Vivanco P.	29. Aguilar B. 25. Aquino D. 9. Bou W. 20. Cabrera B. 13. Cardozo L. 12. Claa N. (G) 39. Medina A. 3. Morgantini N. 28. Ontivero O. 32. Orozco F. 33. Ramirez J. 50. Sanchez F.
Coaches
Ribonetto W.	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Canelo A. 🟨,
37', Marcich S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bordacahar C. ↓, Liza P. ↑,
60', Canelo A. ↓, Bou W. ↑,
60', Segovia A. ↓, Cabrera B. ↑,
61', Liza P. 🟨,
63', Arias A. ↓, Bernaola G. ↑,
64', De Jesus R. 🟨,
71', Ramos E. 🟨,
76', Ramos E. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
78', Losada N. 🟨,
80', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Medina A. ↑,
80', Salvio E. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
84', 0 - 1, Medina A. ⚽,
86', Orzan H. ↓, Lazo M. ↑,
86', Martinez T. ↓, Vivanco P. ↑,
90+2', Carrera R. 🟨,
90+2', Carrera R. ↓, Ramirez J. ↑,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lanús may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Melgar will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Melgar won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
01.05.25	FBC Melgar - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Los Chankas - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	FBC Melgar - Academia Puerto Cabello	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
18.04.25	FBC Melgar - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:2 ✺
13.04.25	Universitario de Deportes - FBC Melgar	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TTWLL
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.25	Atlético Tucumán - Lanús	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Lanús - San Martín de San Juan	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Lanús	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
19.04.25	Lanús - Banfield	1:1 ✺
14.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Lanús	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Lanús - FBC Melgar	3:0

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