Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 6 April 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)


	FBC Melgar		Olimpia Asuncion

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.65
	2.65	3.15	2.8
	2.86	3.09	2.78
	2.6	3	2.62
	2.62	3.22	2.74	Watch
	2.65	3.05	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.38)	3.1 ↓ (3.19)	2.71 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
34.9%

Draw
30.3%

Olimpia Asuncion
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

28.9%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

29.4%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Olimpia Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

FBC Melgar - Olimpia Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melgar: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Melgar is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Olimpia is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Melgar have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
01.04.23	FBC Melgar - Cusco	1:1 ✺
26.03.23	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	0:0 ✺
18.03.23	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	0:0 ✺
05.03.23	Universitario de Deportes - FBC Melgar	1:0 ✺
17.02.23	Sporting Cristal - FBC Melgar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TTTLL
- Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
31.03.23	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
25.03.23	Sportivo Ameliano - Olimpia Asuncion	2:2 ✺
19.03.23	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	2:1 ✺
12.03.23	General Caballero JLM - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
08.03.23	Nacional Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LTWWT

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