Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Unión Tarma (Tarma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	ADT Tarma		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.5	Watch
	2.35	3	2.7
	2.75	3.1	2.58	Watch
	2.81	3.12	2.58
	2.98	3.14	2.44	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.5
	2.79	3.15	2.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.5)	3.1 ↓ (3.25)	2.55 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

ADT Tarma
33.9%

Draw
29.8%

FBC Melgar
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

28.7%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

29%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

ADT Tarma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ADT Tarma than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. ADT will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Melgar will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - ADT (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. ADT (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Solis C. (G) 13. Gomez L. 4. Biojo R. 16. Perez L. 6. Ojeda A. 18. Mazzo A. 8. Guivin Tanta J. 15. Alvino J. 22. Rodriguez A. 14. Cabello C. 10. Cedron V. (C)	21. Cabezudo J. (G) 4. Ramos A. 23. Escobar J. 90. Jesus Alcantar 45. Zegarra M. 6. Salas J. 77. Zanelatto F. 24. Tandazo W. 10. Quagliata N. 66. Orzan H. (C) 11. Vidales J.
Substitutes
32. Bauman J. 21. Benites Vargas L. E. 11. Cubas A. 29. Garcia E. 25. Garcia S. 31. Navarro J. 28. Soto J. 30. Valencia J. (G) 5. Vega J.	12. Caceda C. (G) 16. Caceres J. 9. Cuesta B. 80. D'Arrigo J. 5. Deneumostier A. 17. De Santis J. 22. Erustes P. 8. Guzman L. 33. Lazo M.
Coaches
Trobbiani P.	Reynoso J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', Zanelatto F. ↓, Erustes P. ↑,
31', 1 - 0, Guivin Tanta J. ⚽, Cabello C. (A),
33', Orzan H. ↓, Deneumostier A. ↑,
45+1', Perez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ramos A. ↓, D'Arrigo J. ↑,
48', Guivin Tanta J. 🟨,
68', Rodriguez A. ↓, Bauman J. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Quagliata N. ⚽,
71', Deneumostier A. 🟨,
74', Vidales J. ↓, Cuesta B. ↑,
74', Quagliata N. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
80', Mazzo A. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
83', Cedron V. ↓, Benites Vargas L. E. ↑,
83', Guivin Tanta J. ↓, Soto J. ↑,
86', Escobar J. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, ADT won 0.

ADT has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Melgar is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in ADT: Rengifo H. (Red Card) Soto J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Melgar: Bordacahar C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in ADT: Arakaki H. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, ADT won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:18. (average 0.6:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, ADT won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19
17	AD Tarma	11	1	3	7	7:21	-14	6

Last Results with these Odds

ADT Tarma - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.34%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ADT Tarma
Peruvian Liga 1
14.03.26	Sport Huancayo - ADT Tarma	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	ADT Tarma - Juan Pablo II College	2:3 ✺
27.02.26	Alianza Atlético - ADT Tarma	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	ADT Tarma - Cajamarca	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Deportivo Garcilaso - ADT Tarma	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLTTL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
15.03.26	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	0:0 ✺
09.03.26	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Cienciano - FBC Melgar	2:1 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
27.02.26	FBC Melgar - Los Chankas	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
24.08.25	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	2:2
05.04.25	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	4:0
16.08.24	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	1:1
09.03.24	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	3:1
22.06.23	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	4:0
26.03.23	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	0:0
05.10.22	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	1:1

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