Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App
Usa	Fanatiz


	FBC Melgar		Cusco

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.4	3.7	Watch
	1.92	3.4	3.85	Watch
	2	3.38	3.94
	1.75	3.6	4.69	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.8
	1.88	3.4	4.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.75)	3.41 ↓ (3.51)	4.01 ↓ (4.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
49.3%

Draw
27.4%

Cusco
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

26.3%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

28.2%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Cusco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for FBC Melgar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cusco than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

FBC Melgar - Cusco Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Caceda C. (G) 33. Lazo M. 23. Escobar J. 90. Jesus Alcantar 4. Ramos A. 24. Tandazo W. 20. Bernaola G. 9. Cuesta B. (C) 11. Vidales J. 8. Guzman L. 10. Quagliata N.	28. Diaz P. (G) 8. Fuentes A. 6. Ampuero A. 15. Bolivar J. 24. Ruidias M. 16. Valenzuela O. 27. Carabajal G. 88. Soto D. 22. Colitto L. 7. Manzaneda J. 9. Callejo F. (C)
Substitutes
27. Cabanillas N. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 16. Caceres J. 80. D'Arrigo J. 5. Deneumostier A. 17. De Santis J. 22. Erustes P. 6. Salas J. 45. Zegarra M.	37. Choi G. 10. Colman I. 14. Diez C. 2. Gamarra C. 77. Herrera Joel 26. Silva N. 11. Tevez J. 13. Vidal A. (G) 21. Zevallos J.
Coaches
Balta V.	Orfila A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Carabajal G. ⚽,
4', 0 - 2, Callejo F. (Penalty Awarded),
20', Ruidias M. 🟨,
21', 1 - 2, Jesus Alcantar ⚽, Quagliata N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bernaola G. ↓, Erustes P. ↑,
46', Manzaneda J. ↓, Silva N. ↑,
46', Carabajal G. ↓, Diez C. ↑,
56', Ramos A. ↓, Zegarra M. ↑,
61', 1 - 3, Callejo F. ⚽, Bolivar J. (A),
72', Guzman L. ↓, Caceres J. ↑,
73', Diaz P. 🟨,
74', Ruidias M. ↓, Zevallos J. ↑,
74', Callejo F. 🟨,
77', Colitto L. ↓, Colman I. ↑,
80', Tandazo W. 🟨,
81', Callejo F. ↓, Tevez J. ↑,
81', Vidales J. ↓, De Santis J. ↑,
82', Lazo M. ↓, D'Arrigo J. ↑,
85', Cuesta B. 🟥,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 2.

Recent form of Melgar has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cusco has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Melgar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Melgar is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Melgar: Bordacahar C. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:27. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:15. (average 1:1.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19
9	Cusco	10	6	0	4	19:14	5	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
20.03.26	ADT Tarma - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	0:0 ✺
09.03.26	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Cienciano - FBC Melgar	2:1 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
27.02.26	FBC Melgar - Los Chankas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TTLLL
- Cusco FC
Peruvian Liga 1
21.03.26	Moquegua - Cusco	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Cusco - Cienciano	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Cusco - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Juan Pablo II College - Cusco	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Cusco - Comerciantes Unidos	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
27.07.25	FBC Melgar - Cusco	0:2
14.02.25	Cusco - FBC Melgar	0:1
14.07.24	Cusco - FBC Melgar	0:3
26.01.24	FBC Melgar - Cusco	2:3
19.08.23	Cusco - FBC Melgar	1:1
01.04.23	FBC Melgar - Cusco	1:1
04.08.21	FBC Melgar - Cusco	2:2

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