Match Info

MLS

Date: 25 July 2025, Friday

Location: Toyota Stadium (Frisco, TX)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	FC Dallas		New York City

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.5	2.63	Watch
	2.4	3.5	2.65
	2.52	3.45	2.72	Watch
	2.59	3.48	2.78
	2.56	3.46	2.60	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.75
	2.62	3.59	2.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.51)	3.48 ↓ (3.6)	2.69 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FC Dallas
37.5%

Draw
27.2%

New York City
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

26.6%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

27.5%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FC Dallas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

New York City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FC Dallas than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York City than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	30.8%	53.8%

FC Dallas - New York City Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Dallas will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). NY City will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for NY City: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - NY City (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - NY City (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - NY City (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - NY City (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): New York City will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. NY City (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paes M. (G) 18. Moore S. 3. Urhoghide O. 25. Ibeagha S. 5. Abubakar L. 17. Ramiro 55. Kaick 23. Farrington L. 6. Delgado P. 24. Torquato J. 9. Musa P.	49. Freese M. (G) 35. Ilenic M. 24. Gray T. 80. Haak J. 22. O'Toole K. 10. Moralez M. 21. O'Neill A. 32. Shore J. 17. Wolf H. 16. Martinez A. 8. Perea A.
Substitutes
10. Acosta L. 22. Augusto A. 12. Cappis C. 30. Collodi M. (G) 4. Farfan M. 77. Kamungo B. 8. Lletget S. 16. Ntsabeleng T. 28. Sarver S.	29. Carrizo M. 2. Cavallo N. 11. Fernandez J. 99. Garfield Reid S. 7. Mercau N. 81. Musu S. 26. Ojeda A. 30. Romero T. (G) 19. Tanasijevic S.
Coaches
Quill E.	Jansen P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Shore J. ⚽, Moralez M. (A),
15', 1 - 1, Musa P. ⚽, Delgado P. (A),
17', 2 - 1, Farrington L. ⚽, Ramiro (A),
22', 2 - 2, Martinez A. ⚽, Moralez M. (A),
25', Torquato J. 🟨,
31', Haak J. 🟨,
45+8', 3 - 2, Farrington L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Ilenic M. ↓, Tanasijevic S. ↑,
46', Shore J. ↓, Ojeda A. ↑,
46', Torquato J. ↓, Cappis C. ↑,
46', 3 - 3, Martinez A. ⚽, Wolf H. (A),
61', Delgado P. ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
61', Ramiro ↓, Lletget S. ↑,
61', Wolf H. ↓, Mercau N. ↑,
73', Perea A. 🟨,
80', Farrington L. ↓, Sarver S. ↑,
80', Urhoghide O. ↓, Farfan M. ↑,
84', 3 - 4, Martinez A. ⚽,
90+2', Cappis C. 🟨,
90+4', Moralez M. ↓, Cavallo N. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 0.

Dallas is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

NY City has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, NY City has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Dallas: Geovane Jesus (Knee Injury) Newman E. (Knee Injury) Pomykal P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in NY City: Jones M. (Broken Leg) Parks K. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Dallas: Julio Santos A. A. (Leg Injury) Norris N. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in NY City: Wolf H. (Leg Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Dallas won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Dallas won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Dallas
MLS
19.07.25	FC Dallas - St. Louis City	3:0 ✺
16.07.25	San Jose Earthquakes - FC Dallas	2:2 ✺
12.07.25	Los Angeles - FC Dallas	2:0 ✺
04.07.25	FC Dallas - Minnesota United	1:2 ✺
28.06.25	FC Dallas - San Diego	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTLLL
- New York City FC
MLS
19.07.25	Sporting Kansas City - New York City	1:1 ✺
16.07.25	Orlando City - New York City	1:2 ✺
12.07.25	Charlotte - New York City	2:0 ✺
03.07.25	New York City - Toronto FC	3:1 ✺
28.06.25	CF Montréal - New York City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

MLS
22.04.23	New York City - FC Dallas	3:1
13.07.22	FC Dallas - New York City	0:1
14.09.21	New York City - FC Dallas	3:3
22.09.19	FC Dallas - New York City	1:1
29.04.18	New York City - FC Dallas	3:1
14.05.17	FC Dallas - New York City	1:1
17.09.16	New York City - FC Dallas	2:2

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